Iran conflict on hold as US naval blockade squeezes its oil economy

Iran on pause: the US economic strangulation through Hormuz

The conflict with Iran appears to have reached a stalemate, but the economic pressure keeps mounting. With oil staying expensive and diesel above €1.8 in some areas, Washington's strategy has shifted from military threats to a naval blockade that is suffocating the Iranian economy.

The Hormuz blockade as a strangulation maneuver

The decision to impose a maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has turned the tables: what used to be an Iranian threat to close the oil route is now an American pressure measure preventing Tehran from exporting its crude. With 90% of state revenue depending on oil, Iran faces a storage crisis and the possible shutdown of its wells, which would have irreversible consequences. Some analysts see it as a brilliant move by Trump, avoiding a land invasion that would be military suicide, while others point out that the Iranian regime keeps its financial reserves in London and can hold out.

Pause or theater?

The constant extensions of the ultimatums and the missile movements immediately detected by satellites breed skepticism. While some see a war-of-attrition strategy, others interpret it as political theater to keep the conflict narrative alive without reaching all-out war. The stock market, meanwhile, is at record highs, a sign that markets have already priced in the risk.

The open question is whether this economic pressure will make Iran give in or whether, on the contrary, desperation will lead to an unpredictable escalation. For now, the clock is ticking and oil remains expensive.

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