Inflation debate: the 15% some see behind official CPI

Inflation: the real 15% some see behind official CPI

While official CPI stands at around 6%, some argue that real inflation reaches 12% or 15%. The gap between the figure published by statistics institutes and what people actually pay at the grocery store has become the focus of a debate that has been brewing for years and now, with interest rates up in the air, takes on a new urgency. The recurring question is no longer how much everything is rising, but how much longer this situation can be sustained.

The CPI that doesn't match the shopping basket

The official inflation figure is around 6%, but some put the real number at 12% or 15%. References to the Alternate Inflation Charts have become a common way to measure the gap. The argument repeated over and over is that, if the CPI were accurate, food, energy and rents would not have seen such violent increases. Fuel alone has become 40% more expensive in the past year, according to some of the figures being cited in the debate. The recurring conclusion is that the official figure is cooked up.

The Taylor rule and the impossible rate

A calculation applying the Taylor rule — a formula central banks use to set interest rates — concludes that, with seasonally adjusted annualized inflation of 15.4%, the Federal Reserve should raise rates to 24.1% to bring it down to 2%. The figure is so high that nobody seriously disputes it. The problem is that if rates aren't raised, the economy is destroyed by inflation; if they are, the economy is destroyed by the cost of money. It is the dilemma that sums up the trap: whatever they do, the United States and Europe are screwed.

Gold, silver and the haven that pays no taxes

Faced with this scenario, the recipe repeated again and again is precious metals. Gold tracks the growth of the money supply (M2), which means it generates no real gains but preserves purchasing power. Silver, more volatile, is presented as the option for small savers: with 50 euros, two ounces of physical 999 silver. The warning is clear: you pay a 5% premium when buying and another 5% when selling, so you need to plan on a three-year horizon to recover the investment. Gold incurs no taxes, only transport and commission. Rental property generates income, but requires a 50,000 or 60,000 euro down payment and the ability to handle a mortgage.

Cryptocurrencies: the haven that rises 500% or crashes

The other side of the debate is cryptocurrencies. Some argue that HEX, a coin that distributes its 3% annual inflation among those who stake, has risen 20% in 24 hours and accumulated 500% gains in six months. The argument is that, unlike the fiat system, where new money goes to banks and governments, here inflation works for the user. The rebuttal comes quickly: that forces intraday trading and it is not a store of value. The discussion over whether crypto is the present and the future or a ticking time bomb remains open.

Ebro Foods and the food thesis

Among Spanish companies, one name keeps coming up: Ebro Foods. World leader in rice and second in pasta, with inelastic demand (nobody stops eating), highly internationalized (Spain accounts for only 8% of its market) and able to pass inflation on to the end customer. Its business is easy to automate, it has just peine an automated plant and pays steady dividends. Its owners are buying shares. It is the safe-haven thesis within the Ibex, though not without risks: the 2030 Agenda and pressure on meat consumption could hurt its business.

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The exact point where the analysis gets stuck is the same as at the beginning: nobody knows whether rates will rise enough to contain inflation without taking the economy down with them. With the Taylor rule pointing to an impossible 24.1%, the only certainty is that whoever picks the right haven will have won the game. Everyone else, wait and see.