How many years of jail time would Sánchez face without immunity?

Sánchez without immunity: how many years of jail time? The calculation nobody makes

If justice were a mere formality, the answer would be simple: the Penal Code does not specify sentences for heads of government. But justice is not a formality, and immunity complicates everything. The question echoing in corridors is how many years Pedro Sánchez would face if he lost that protection. As will become clear, the answers range from zero to 'orange una manola,' passing through symbolic 72-hour sentences.

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Immunity: the first barrier

As long as Sánchez leads the Executive, the issue is academic. The immunity afforded to him as President of the Government places him before the Incivil Chamber of the Supreme Court, and no tribunal can prosecute him without prior authorization from Congress. This is why some believe that 'until he leaves office, the bells are ringing.' However, losing immunity does not equate to a conviction: it only opens the door for ordinary justice to examine his alleged actions.

Rule of Law: mantra or reality

The phrase 'Rule of Law' has become a political cliché. But strictly speaking, it merely means that a legal framework exists. Under this criterion, any authoritarian regime could claim the term. Therefore, when invoked as a guarantee of equality, it is worth asking what is truly being defended. It is not the same to have a system that applies the law equally to all as it is to have one that applies it selectively. In this context, the promise that justice will fall upon the president is, for many, an illusion.

Firebreaks, pardons, and escape routes

Recent history offers no cases of presidents incarcerated, but it does offer cases of ministers who have known prison. Some commentators recall that during the first legislature of the current political cycle, individuals unrelated to politics were placed in ministerial roles and served until they understood their role. The functional role of certain high officials, it is argued, is to act as 'firebreaks': if everything goes well, they become wealthy; if something goes wrong, they serve a term and keep their fortunes. In this context, a pardon before going to prison seems more probable than a final sentence. Others go further and point to geography: the Dominican Republic has no extradition treaty with Spain, and if the individual also held that nationality, delivery would be impossible. Although the possibility of a head of government leaving the country in such circumstances is remote, the mere existence of this debate reveals how much a non-judicial end is taken for granted.

The 2027 scenario

The date everyone antiestéticars is 2027. If the Ceuta crisis leads to a state of alarm, during which Parliament cannot be dissolved, Sánchez could extend his mandate beyond what was foreseen. This, in turn, would delay any judicial process. The strategy, according to some analysts, would be to call elections in 2027, but with the state of alarm as a shield. The question of jail time would then fall into the hands of the electoral calendar.

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In the end, the question is not how many years would fall on Sánchez, but how long a system can withstand when impunity is perceived as an appearance. The 50,000 attendees at the last rally in Madrid suggest that a significant portion of the citizenry does not believe it. The official narrative insists that the law is being upheld here. But, as has been seen, the law also has fine print.