Gasoline Cars Will Be Usable, But Their Resale Value Could Be Zero

Buying Gas Today: A Car for Life, Zero Resale

The paradox can be summed up in one sentence: gasoline cars registered now will be able to be driven by their owners for as long as they wish, but their resale value could end up being nothing. This is what Luis Valdés argues in an interview about first-half sales data in Spain, and the headline has been enough to reignite the war between combustion engines and electric cars.

The thesis is uncomfortable. Anyone buying a gasoline car now will have no problem using it for years, but the second-hand market might turn its back on them the day they want to sell it. Nobody disputes that a ten-year-old utility vehicle is worth little. The argument is whether gasoline cars will drop to zero and electric ones will hold up better, or if the exact opposite will happen.

Is it true that a gasoline car will have no resale value?

There is no consensus, and that's the crux of the matter. Some argue that the residual value of any vehicle after ten years is anecdotal, so the prophecy fulfills itself: if today nobody pays almost anything for a car of that age, neither will they tomorrow. Others counter with real-life examples to the contrary.

A specific case: a 17-year-old car sold in perfect condition for 1,000 euros in 2017, which its owner claims accumulated an additional 120,000 kilometers in the buyer's hands. Twenty-year-old cars, with that same argument, are fetching around 3,000 euros if they are well-maintained and, it is claimed, sell easily. Weighing against this view is regulatory uncertainty: low-emission zones and the 2030 deadline looming over the sale of combustion vehicles.

What happens to an electric car's battery after ten years

Here's the most cited figure. An AI query estimates a loss of between 20% and 30% in capacity after a decade of use, with variations depending on the manufacturer, charging method, and temperature. Translated: after those years, the battery would still retain between 70% and 80% of its initial capacity.

The scenario changes if the car sleeps on the street. In continental climates, with frequent deep discharges and no active temperature management, degradation soars. A circulated calculation adds 5% annually in hot climates and an extra 10% for those who make more than three fast charges per month. Another message takes pessimism to the extreme: LiFePO4 batteries that show obvious problems after five years and are useless after ten.

Electric cars also depreciate: up to 66% in twelve months

The defense of the combustion engine isn't just theoretical. Analyses published in specialized media are cited, according to which some electric cars lose up to 66% of their value in just twelve months, and premium electric sedans and luxury electric SUVs can lose more than 50% in five years. With that picture, the residual value argument turns against its proponents.

There's another layer of suspicion regarding the state's role. In Shenzhen, subsidies for purchasing electric vehicles reach 50% of the price, and European regulations oblige manufacturers to meet sales quotas for electric vehicles to avoid penalizing their combustion engines. It's even suggested that some brands have registered their own electric cars to meet targets. The real market, it is said, would choose a different car.

Beijing, Shenzhen, and the Chinese factor

Geopolitics enters the discussion fully. In Beijing, 77% of taxis are electric, a figure that enthusiasts use as proof that the model works when there's will and infrastructure. Skeptics respond that the city is not extrapolable: neither the public subsidy nor the central planning can be copied as is.

Ford's CEO himself, Jim Farley, is cited with a damaging quote: that 70% of electric cars are made in China and are technologically superior. The conclusion for some is that Europe is lagging behind; for others, that China's advantage stems from an intervened market. In Spain, meanwhile, the 1 MW chargers that BYD's president promised to bring to Europe are seen as a distant promise. The comparison with fiber optics, which reached four places before reaching everyone, serves both sides of the argument.

Replacing the battery or the engine: the numbers

When a breakdown occurs, the bill decides. Replacing an electric car battery costs between 7,000 and 16,000 euros; replacing an equivalent gasoline engine costs between 4,000 and 10,000 euros. The difference exists and is notable, although it depends on whether the battery is replaced in modules or as a whole.

The problem is that nobody knows how long the new battery will last. With a degraded capacity of 30%, recharging above 60% becomes an odyssey after four or five years, according to the most critical testimonies. And therein lies the knot: those who bought gasoline expect to reach the scrapyard with the same car, not to resell it.

With these figures on the table, banning the combustion engine in 2030 without having sufficient infrastructure or electric cars seems like a leap of faith. How many buyers are willing to risk their money before knowing who is right?