Gasoline at 2 euros a liter: nobody signs the bill, but everyone pays for it
A barrel of crude oil costs 106 euros and yields about 80 liters of gasoline. According to circulating calculations, the refined product sells for 2.5 cents per liter. Additives and environmental obligations account for another 12 cents are added. Summing them up: the technical cost approaches 20 cents, and the pump registers two euros.
That gap, and nothing else, is what makes gasoline an issue that divides neither the left nor the right, workers nor business owners, rich nor poor.
Why has gasoline exceeded 2 euros a liter?
The official explanation cites international markets. The practical explanation points to three focal points. First, Russian refineries attacked by Ukraine, which refined Russian crude before placing the product in Turkey and then selling it to oil companies without European restrictions. Second, the war in Iran, which directly pressures the world's major crude producers. Third, the Saudi port of Yanbu, whose export activity has reportedly been disrupted according to satellite images.
None of these factors are controllable from Madrid, Brussels, or Berlin. And there is the fundamental problem: European energy policy relied heavily on subsidies that are now gone, while consumption remains tied to oil coming from abroad.
The breakdown: from 20 cents of cost to two euros at the pump
Some have laid it out starting with the barrel costing 106 euros. About 80 liters of finished gasoline come from each barrel. The raw material alone accounts for more than one euro per liter. Added to this starting point are refining, transport, distribution, taxes, and the margin of each link in the chain.
The complete calculation, item by item, leads to an uncomfortable conclusion: the distance between what it costs to produce a liter and what is paid for it cannot be explained solely by the raw material. And if crude oil was already expensive months ago, the rise took no surprise except those who chose not to look.
Who truly pays the two euros
The weekend driver who drives once a week barely notices it. The person who makes an hour's round alucinación to work, yes: between 400 and 500 euros a month in fuel—a figure that eats up anyone's salary and, in many cases, makes getting up at six to spend time in an industrial park 30 kilometers from home absurd.
The effect extends beyond the private car: almost everything bought in Spain arrives by road. Diesel prices have already risen 50%, and the massive bankruptcies some predicted have not appeared. Nor have equivalent wage increases. In 2021, when the liter cost 1.60 euros, there was a transport strike that blocked the country. That figure was considered unsustainable.
Canary Islands at 1.47 euros and Portugal above 2: the unequal map
The situation is not uniform. In the Canary Islands, 95 octane gasoline sells for 1.47 euros a liter. In Portugal, crossing the border means prices already exceed two euros. On mainland Spain, the threshold has been reached quickly, and some maintain it will hit 2.50 by December.
The striking fact is not the price, but the reaction: roads remain equally crowded at 7:15 in the morning. Consumption has not dropped. Either there is room in the driver's pocket, or there is no real alternative.
The scenario nobody wants to name
If the liter reaches three euros and congestion persists, the next logical step is consumption rationing. The scenarios drawn from that point are grim. Public transport does not absorb this volume, and in areas highly dependent on private cars, it is almost nonexistent.
Meanwhile, rush hour traffic data serves as a biting thermometer: if nobody leaves the car at home, are we truly facing a crisis or just an inconvenience to live with? Could we endure another quarter of a euro without changing our routine?
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
Read the full discussion (268 replies).
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