Gas at €2: How much is tax and how much is Trump's fault?
Nearly 50% of the €2 per liter of gasoline is tax; the rest depends on Brent and Hormuz. A breakdown of who keeps what.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Gas at €2: Half is tax and the other half is decided in Hormuz
Filling up a 50-liter tank costs €100 today. It is the most common bill of the week for millions of drivers in 2026 and, simultaneously, the most misunderstood. Of those two euros per liter, almost half is not fuel: it is fiscal charge (tax). And of the rest, much of it does not depend on the current government or the mood of any foreign president, but on the price of crude oil and a narrow passage through which a decisive portion of global petroleum passes. The struggle between these two explanations—taxes versus geo-pressures—has gone days without either side conceding.
Of every 2€ per liter, how much is actually tax?
The breakdown is stubborn with the most comfortable narrative. The factory price of fuel, as it comes out of the refinery pipe, is around 60 cents per liter; the gross refining margin amounts to about 0.08 cents, a figure that debunks the idea that the oil company is making a killing at the source. At the other end of the pump, the State keeps around 100 cents per liter plus the corresponding VAT, while the gas station barely scrapes out a 14-cent commercial margin. Nearly 50% of the final price is tax, and that percentage grows with every rise in crude because VAT is applied on a larger base.
The practical consequence inconveniences both sides: eliminating the special tax would drop the price per liter instantly, but lowering a fixed amount by just ten cents—as has been done other times—is cosmetic because the percentage component eats up any relief as soon as the barrel price rises.
War, Brent, and why Washington is blamed
There is a second culprit with a name of its own. The escalation in the Middle East and tension in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent above $100, and there is a direct pipeline from there to the pump. The data that best measures the impact is not in Europe: in the United States, diesel has just exceeded $6.2 per gallon, and a liter of gasoline costs $1.19, about €1.03. This is a figure 30% higher than before the Iranian adventure, and it serves as a reminder that even the world's largest oil producer is not immune to its own foreign policy.
For a net importer like Spain, with consumption that is meant to be discouraged and without leverage over crude oil, it can only absorb the blow through price or through tax.
Russian gas is gone and the 2027 winter
A piece of information is missing: supply. Without Russian gas and with refineries operating under strain after years of fluctuations, the cushion that once absorbed every energy crisis has thinned. The timeline managed by the most pessimists does not point to this autumn, but to early 2027, when the cut in Russian-origin diesel (around 10% of the total) is expected to stop being an anecdote and start affecting the bill.
Electric cars aren't free either
The mantra that plugging the car in at home is the solution meets its own bill. Installing solar panels and charging points has its taxation, and those who have already made the switch warn that depreciation and maintenance costs can eat up savings as soon as a fault occurs outside of warranty.
For those living in a town without public transport, the alternative simply does not exist. And second-use fuels—agricultural or heating oil—are formulated to destroy the engine if someone tries to use them in a passenger car.
Ten cents, labels, and other ways not to answer
It must be said: much of the analysis has devolved into mutual deprecation, labels that mix social class and political affiliation and add not a single cent to the breakdown. It is the old maneuver of blaming the adversary instead of looking at the spreadsheet. The fundamental positions, meanwhile, remain three: those who exclusively blame crude oil and war; those who point to the State's fiscal margin; and those who maintain that both things add up and reinforce each other.
The staggering fact is not at the pump, but in public accounts: through the special hydrocarbon tax, the State collects between 8 and 12 times what it invests in the infrastructure used by those same cars. With that arithmetic, the price per liter depends less on the mood of a specific president than on a treasury that has no hurry to lower it.
Filling up a 50-liter tank costs €100 today. It is the most common bill of the week for millions of drivers in 2026 and, simultaneously, the most misunderstood. Of those two euros per liter, almost half is not fuel: it is fiscal charge (tax). And of the rest, much of it does not depend on the current government or the mood of any foreign president, but on the price of crude oil and a narrow passage through which a decisive portion of global petroleum passes. The struggle between these two explanations—taxes versus geo-pressures—has gone days without either side conceding.
Of every 2€ per liter, how much is actually tax?
The breakdown is stubborn with the most comfortable narrative. The factory price of fuel, as it comes out of the refinery pipe, is around 60 cents per liter; the gross refining margin amounts to about 0.08 cents, a figure that debunks the idea that the oil company is making a killing at the source. At the other end of the pump, the State keeps around 100 cents per liter plus the corresponding VAT, while the gas station barely scrapes out a 14-cent commercial margin. Nearly 50% of the final price is tax, and that percentage grows with every rise in crude because VAT is applied on a larger base.
The practical consequence inconveniences both sides: eliminating the special tax would drop the price per liter instantly, but lowering a fixed amount by just ten cents—as has been done other times—is cosmetic because the percentage component eats up any relief as soon as the barrel price rises.
War, Brent, and why Washington is blamed
There is a second culprit with a name of its own. The escalation in the Middle East and tension in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent above $100, and there is a direct pipeline from there to the pump. The data that best measures the impact is not in Europe: in the United States, diesel has just exceeded $6.2 per gallon, and a liter of gasoline costs $1.19, about €1.03. This is a figure 30% higher than before the Iranian adventure, and it serves as a reminder that even the world's largest oil producer is not immune to its own foreign policy.
For a net importer like Spain, with consumption that is meant to be discouraged and without leverage over crude oil, it can only absorb the blow through price or through tax.
Russian gas is gone and the 2027 winter
A piece of information is missing: supply. Without Russian gas and with refineries operating under strain after years of fluctuations, the cushion that once absorbed every energy crisis has thinned. The timeline managed by the most pessimists does not point to this autumn, but to early 2027, when the cut in Russian-origin diesel (around 10% of the total) is expected to stop being an anecdote and start affecting the bill.
Electric cars aren't free either
The mantra that plugging the car in at home is the solution meets its own bill. Installing solar panels and charging points has its taxation, and those who have already made the switch warn that depreciation and maintenance costs can eat up savings as soon as a fault occurs outside of warranty.
For those living in a town without public transport, the alternative simply does not exist. And second-use fuels—agricultural or heating oil—are formulated to destroy the engine if someone tries to use them in a passenger car.
Ten cents, labels, and other ways not to answer
It must be said: much of the analysis has devolved into mutual deprecation, labels that mix social class and political affiliation and add not a single cent to the breakdown. It is the old maneuver of blaming the adversary instead of looking at the spreadsheet. The fundamental positions, meanwhile, remain three: those who exclusively blame crude oil and war; those who point to the State's fiscal margin; and those who maintain that both things add up and reinforce each other.
The staggering fact is not at the pump, but in public accounts: through the special hydrocarbon tax, the State collects between 8 and 12 times what it invests in the infrastructure used by those same cars. With that arithmetic, the price per liter depends less on the mood of a specific president than on a treasury that has no hurry to lower it.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (230 replies).
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