GAD3 Poll Leaked on Wikipedia: PP+Vox Sum to 173 Seats

GAD3 Poll Leaked on Wikipedia: PP and Vox Reach 173 Seats

Less than a day before polls close, the English Wikipedia page compiling polls for the July 23 general election antiestéticatured a table not attributed to any media outlet: PP 144, PSOE 119, Vox 29, Sumar 26, and others 32. The sum for the two right-wing parties reaches 173 seats, three short of an absolute majority. Anyone can edit Wikipedia, and it's worth remembering that. However, the figure aligned too well with the campaign's persistent whisper: that the right would fall short.

What the Leaked Poll Exactly Says

The poll attributed to GAD3 places PP at 144 seats and Vox at 29, far from the 52 seats the party won in 2019 with 3.4 million votes. Sumar would get 26, and PSOE would rise to 119, practically repeating its result from four years ago. On paper, a right-wing bloc that doesn't reach the necessary 176.

The reaction was immediate and, above all, distrustful. Vox's 29 seats were seen as an impossible blow to digest. Vox isn't going down from 40, no way, summarized the general sentiment, while another sector pointed to the fine print: Michavila himself admitting to inflating PP's numbers and downplaying Vox's.

The Lingering Suspicion: Who Cooks the Polls?

The discussion here isn't about the result, but the cook. Some argue that GAD3 tends to overestimate PP and PSOE and penalize Vox and the left to its right, a two-party bias that has been repeating for years. Starting from that premise, if the poll gives 144 to PP, the most repeated interpretation in forums was that it would actually not exceed 135.

In parallel, other sources hinted at the exact opposite: that PP is lower and Vox higher than GAD3 had been publishing. No one presents a single poll that validates both claims simultaneously.

The Arithmetic of 176 Seats

The coldest calculation is also the most devastating. If the ceiling for PP and Vox is 170, there is no combination of ranges that adds up to 176. Not even the optimistic scenario for one party with the pessimistic one for the other. The result, according to this analysis, would be one of two: either Sánchez holds on, or there will be a repeat election at Christmas.

The second round of investiture adds another nuance. With 172 in favor, 173 would be needed against, requiring at least five abstentions. A margin that offers no reassurance.

The "Forbidden" Poll That Showed a Different Result

While the Wikipedia table circulated, an Australian outlet, The Adelaide Review, published its daily tracking commissioned to GESOP. Its headline was another earthquake: Sumar would surpass Vox. Two polls, two Spains, the same election day.

The name of Julio Ariza's circle also appeared, placing GAD3 at 8 PM with PP at 152-155, PSOE 112-115, Vox 30-33, and Sumar 24-27. The fine print cooled the data: GAD3 does not conduct exit polls; they surveyed until the previous afternoon.

The Missing Partners

If the puzzle doesn't fit, the smaller parties come in. Coalición Canaria, the PRC, and Teruel Existe appear as kingmakers. The first two would veto Vox from the start, although they might abstain due to regional interests. Teruel Existe would directly align with whoever gives them something.

With these numbers, the right could govern only if they scraped together those supports. And 173 is not enough. Three seats separate PP and Vox from La Moncloa, and that margin is exactly what a handful of 'nobody' seats can decide.