France, a broken mirror: deficit and unrest out of control

France's crisis combines a deficit and debt the government cannot control, recurring urban violence and a political centre that Macron has failed to rebuild. The question raised is not whether the contagion will reach Spain, but when.

## A president with no room for manoeuvre and public accounts out of control

Emmanuel Macron is facing the final stretch of his double mandate with no control over the essentials. His government does not master the deficit, the debt, the economy, immigration or order on the streets. That is how **Ignacio Camacho** frames it in an article published in **ABC** on **20 October 2026**, where he describes the situation as a systemic crisis in the European Union's second-largest economy.

The clock is ticking: eight months remain until a presidential election that will, in all likelihood, be contested between two radical candidates. The president has been unable, or unwilling, to rebuild the political centre or find anyone capable of defending it with any real prospects. The structural problems that essayist **Nicolas Baverez** denounced in 'La France qui tombe' remain unsolved almost a quarter of a century later, and most have grown worse.

## From the yellow vests to the black blocs

The protests of recent days began with students and were trinc by trade unionists, farmers, civil servants, pensioners and consumers squeezed by the cost of living and the collapse of public services. They were joined by the motley yellow vests. But it is not those people who burned Limoges, wrecked Marseille, hung the Palestinian flag on the Eiffel Tower and looted Parisian shops.

Behind that discontent something else has emerged: the far-left black blocs and the masked militants of **Jean-Luc Mélenchon**'s La France Insoumise, acting as the vanguard of the young Jovenlandeses of the banlieues. Camacho describes them as the children of multiculturalism's failure. Over those barricades of fire, the veteran post-communist leader hopes to launch his campaign for the election, though he may only succeed in delivering to **Marine Le Pen** the votes of a middle class terrified by the vandalism.

## The contagion is already at Spain's doorstep

The riots have spread to neighbouring countries such as **Belgium** and **Italy**, which makes the question of whether they will reach Spain all the more relevant. The only doubt is when: before or after the elections called and shaped by the sanchismo camp (the political movement around Spain's PM Pedro Sánchez) on a basis of maximum polarisation. According to the article, the most likely scenario is that until **29 November** there will only be sketches and rehearsals of a large-scale populist mobilisation.

That mobilisation would turn more aggressive once the foreseeable change of government takes place. With the right in power and municipal and regional elections due in the spring, the text considers it plausible that the antifascist alarm will end in a string of strikes, protest stunts and riots. A street challenge dressed up as a citizen revolt, with a roster of intellectuals and media outlets ready to analyse it, understand it or justify it.

## The economy underpinning the discontent

The root of the matter is material. A society unable to pay for its enormous subsidy spending has grown used to venting its frustrations in periodic outbreaks of violence. The cost of living and the deterioration of public services fuel the grassroots protest, while the government fails to put the public accounts in order. With no fiscal or political room for manoeuvre, Europe's last moderate leader arrives at the presidential election with a broken mirror.