Forum user claims early election saved Vox from extinction

Forum user claims early election gave Vox air when internal polls predicted its disappearance

The May 28 local elections left PSOE knocked out and PP surging in polls, according to a participant's analysis. If Pedro Sánchez had finished the legislative term, his calculation suggests general elections would have fallen on October 5, 2023, more than five months after the municipal and regional setback. In that scenario, he argues, internal polls of both parties gave PP between 165 and 180 MPs and sank PSOE below one hundred. With those figures, he asserts, Feijóo wouldn't have needed Vox even for the investiture.

The thesis defended by this user is uncomfortable for the triumphalist narrative: the early election wasn't a masterstroke by Sánchez, but an damage control forced by his own party. Each day that passed, according to this reading, meant more votes and seats for PP. If he could have, PSOE would have held general elections on May 29, the same day as the debacle.

Why this forum user believes Vox survives thanks to the electoral calendar

The central argument is that Vox was saved by the bell. In a scenario of October elections, with PP nearing or reaching an absolute majority, Feijóo could have closed deals with minor nationalist parties in exchange for modest budgetary concessions, according to this thesis. Without needing Vox in Congress, Abascal's party would have been left without relevant autonomous or municipal power seats, no sinecures to distribute among its cadres, and dispersed votes. This user's forecast is blunt: rapid languishing and disappearance before the next general elections.

This same participant compares the situation to Carrillo and Anguita's PCE (Spanish Communist Party). That party reached 10% of the vote in three general elections and exceeded 12% in the first municipal elections, with Anguita as mayor of Córdoba. It didn't escape stagnation. Ciudadanos experienced a similar process and ended up engulfed or disappeared. The conclusion drawn is that Vox is walking toward the same fate, and the early election has given it oxygen to survive a little longer.

The counterargument: Vox rises in every electoral event

The reply comes from other users in the thread. It is argued that Vox has risen in every election it has contested, except in Madrid, and that its voter base is loyal, informed, and intelligent. The "useful vote" invoked by PP and PSOE wouldn't work with them. Data they handle indicate that in 2019 Vox achieved 52 seats and that in subsequent general elections it wouldn't drop, but would continue uninterrupted growth, with estimates between 60 and 70 seats.

Another argument focuses on the calendar: assuming two consecutive electoral processes is a blow to Vox's economy, something PP and PSOE don't notice because they've lived off others' sweat for decades, according to this user. It is also pointed out that in PP's municipal and regional results there is much vote that in general elections would go to Vox. The right, they say, is what's at stake now, and Vox would have had a better chance if Feijóo had had more time to expose himself.

Sánchez's wear and tear and Feijóo's calculation

The scenario depicted by the analysis is one of Sánchez pressured by his own people to call early elections and stop the bleeding. The present debacle and the foreseeable future debacle would have forced the move, according to this reading. In that context, PP arrived at the appointment with expectations of an absolute majority or very close to it, and Feijóo wouldn't have needed Vox to govern.

The discussion drifts toward Feijóo's role as an agent of wear and tear. He is accused of being willing to support PSOE and rambling in the previous weeks, which would have put PP in trouble in December. The conclusion repeated by this user is that the early election has been a breath of fresh air for Vox, and that without it the party would be closer today to disappearance than consolidation.

What happens if Vox disappears and PP doesn't need its crutch?

The question hovering over the analysis is what happens when the crutch is no longer necessary. If PP reaches an absolute majority or makes pacts with nationalists, Vox is left without influence capacity and without a power structure, according to this thesis. Its cadres wouldn't have perks to distribute and its vote would disperse. The most repeated forecast by this user is disappearance before the next general elections, similar to Ciudadanos'.

The unknown remains whether Vox's electorate will resist the useful vote or if, conversely, its loyalty will allow it to keep growing. The 2019 data and estimates of 60 to 70 seats point to the latter, according to other users. Internal polls that, according to this analysis, PP and PSOE handled pointed to the former. No one has a definitive answer.