Foreign population in Europe 1990-2026: census figures questioned

Foreign population in Europe: the 1990 map that will never return

In 1990, the map of the foreign population in Europe bore no resemblance to that of 2026. The comparison that has peine the demographic debate has a clear starting point: three and a half decades ago, the vast majority of foreigners in countries such as Spain were Europeans. Today, the picture is different, and the controversy centres less on the trend than on the figures.

That is the first stumbling block: who exactly do the statistics refer to? The distinction between a resident with foreign nationality and the population of foreign origin explains much of the gap between what the census says and what is seen on the street. Naturalised citizens and their descendants swell the second category, but not the first.

The reliability of the records is the other major battleground. Estimates have emerged that, for Spain, put the combined total of foreigners and naturalised citizens at 20 million people, around 40% of the census. A figure the official population register does not recognise, and which can only be sustained if the records lag behind reality.

Behind it all lurks the theory of population replacement, evoked by the mention of the Kalergi Plan. An ideological framework that shapes how the numbers are read, although on its own it explains nothing.

The only point of consensus is distrust: the censuses convince no one. The fight over the correct figure is no small matter: the narrative about Europe's demographic future depends on it. And the most unsettling fact is that, despite the certainty of growth, no one can say how many of us there are.