First moves of a Third World War?

World War III is already underway

World War III is already underway. That is the conclusion of those who compare the invasion of Ukraine with the run-up to World War II: first a civil war, then an invasion, and then a global escalation. But history rarely announces its catastrophes: the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was not read at the time as the starting gun for 1914. The silent moves have been happening for years.

The signs that precede conflict

Those who study the run-ups to major wars point to a list of triggers. Russian troops massed on the border under the excuse of "some exercises". Unusual movements in Königsberg. The FBI order to repatriate Americans in Europe. And the instruction from Ukraine's GUR (military intelligence) urging the population to head to shelters over a possible nuclear attack. Before that, there would be controlled elections in Russia and a mass mobilization already taking shape.

A war that has already passed its point of no return?

Another reading is clear: the world war began in 2022. The Ukrainian civil war dates back to 2014. The same pattern as World War II. Some even go further back: 2017, when Trump sent missiles and troops to Poland, or 2019, when Russian and American nuclear submarines attacked each other. For them, it is not a question of whether there will be war: we are already watching it.

If history is cyclical, we are in the run-up. If it is noise, it will all have been an anecdote. But today's skeptics are the same people who ignored the signs in 1914 and 1939. Perhaps this time the prediction will be wrong.