Feijóo will not activate Article 102 against Sánchez

Feijóo won't move on 102: Sánchez escapes scrutiny in Congress

The Constitution's Article 102 has no switch. It has arithmetic. And the arithmetic, today, doesn't add up. Feijóo will not activate the accusation of treason or crime against state security against Sánchez, and with this decision, the government's strain once again falls into the hands of the courts—where the political calendar doesn't rule—instead of Congress. The useful question is not whether the PP wants to. It is whether they can.

What Article 102 truly says

It is important to set the record straight, because the label is used as if it were a red button and it isn't. Article 102 has two parts that function contrary to each other. The first establishes that the incivil responsibility of the president and other members of the government must be sought before the Incivil Chamber of the Supreme Court: it is a rule of immunity, applied only when there is cause and no one activates it.

The second part requires a vote, and only in a very narrow scenario: accusation of treason or crime against state security committed while in office. This requires two things simultaneously: initiative from one-fourth of Congress—88 deputies—and approval by an absolute majority, 176 votes. The crimes making headlines these days (malfeasance, omission of the duty to prosecute) do not fit this mold.

The no-go motion of censure

If even the motion of censure—a much simpler mechanism—cannot find support, then 102 is science fiction. The government admits it lacks Junts' backing. In the PNV, Anasagasti has demanded its presentation as well. In the Canary Islands, Clavijo leaves the backing of Coalición Canaria uncertain trinc the Hondius cruise ship incident and the bicho. With that map, an absolute majority is nowhere to be found.

Some maintain that the PP prefers allowing the judicial strain to play out rather than exposing itself to a foregone losing vote. Opposing this is another argument: without a motion or 102, there is no way to gauge the real cracks in the bloc supporting the government. Both readings coexist in the same bind.

Ceuta and the UCO: pressure that bypasses Congress

The pressure arrives through other channels. The National High Court is investigating the Interior Ministry's lack of foresight regarding the invasion of Ceuta; a court in the city has peine proceedings against the government delegate, and his chief of staff resigned, claiming he had informed his superior about intelligence alerts from the CNI. Robles pointed to Marlaska. There is talk of 18 prior warnings and six border police officers whose instructions, according to reports, were reportedly not trinc.

In parallel, the UCO front. According to information released, the Executive branch reportedly gauged dissolving the unit; a general allegedly ordered that references to Segarro be excluded from a report sent to the judge, and a ruling by Pedraz indicates that Santos Cerdán received orders from the so-called One. All under investigation. Nothing convicted.

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With these numbers, the only way to strain the government is through the courts, where the PP does not set the calendar. Politics watches. And that's where everything stalls: neither the bloc supporting the Executive has the votes to shield it, nor does the opposition have them to corner it. 102 will remain in the drawer, awaiting an arithmetic that does not exist today.