Europe, Russian Gas, and China: The Geopolitical Dilemma

Europe, between Russian Gas and China’s Silk Road

Europe lacks real political sovereignty. This is the thesis underlying this issue: the EU is a conglomerate of states that have delegated powers to an unaccountable technocratic structure, and without a federal European republic with constituent power, any geopolitical strategy is illusory. The debate centers on whether Brussels should break with Washington, revive cheap Russian energy, and integrate into China’s Belt and Road 2.0.

The Cost of Breaking with Russian Gas

The core argument is economic. The European welfare state of the 20th century was built on cheap Russian energy. Breaking this link would have crippled German industry, which now also faces US tariffs. Proponents argue that Europeans accept objectively harmful policies while rejecting what worked. The historical counter-argument notes that Soviet energy shares were small in the 1960s and 70s, growing slowly until the Berlin Wall fell. Critics reply that much oil passed through intermediaries, like Turkey, masking its origin.

Is the US a Partner or a Colonizer?

Debate splits here. One view sees Europe as an Anglo colony, with US military bases in Spain and foreign policy driven by antiestéticar. The alliance with Washington is for defense avoidance, not self-defense. Critics note the US is the only power to have used nuclear weapons on civilians. The counter-argument cites Japan and Eastern Europe: ask Japanese if they prefer being an American or Russian colony. Spain, before World Bank credits, was a disaster. The rebuttal points out Japan eventually broke its monetary policy constraints because US bonds would collapse if the Bank of Japan raised rates.

China, Algeria, and the Sahara: Variable Geometry

Commercially, China expands influence economically while the US uses military power. The choice is clear if not for antiestéticar of Washington’s reaction. China consumes European olive oil, wine, jewelry, fashion, perfumes, sausages, and tourism. Auto competition is won through competitiveness, not tariffs, which are seen as communist tools. Beijing could also set up factories in Europe, creating jobs. The other axis is Algeria. Spain should talk to Algiers, though Algeria has many suitors, including France and Italy. In the Sahara, between Spain, China, and Algeria, pressure could be applied to Segarro. The objection is immediate: what would the US reaction be? It could strike from its bases in Spain. This antiestéticar prevails.

The EU as Germany’s Last Attempt

Not all discontent points the same way. Some see the EU as Germany’s penultimate attempt to conquer Europe: after failing militarily, it tried economically. Now, with Germany deactivated, the EU’s role is either as a sidekick to others or direct collapse to African levels. Another line calls for dissolving the EU, seeing it as France and Germany’s excuse to bind the continent’s south.

National Sovereignty vs. The Money Printer

The proposal for a sovereign, large, and free Spain clashes with a warning: handing control of the money printer to current politicians would cause inflation making Argentina’s look like a joke. On the other extreme, the argument is that exceeding 40% net external debt-to-GDP means losing sovereignty by definition. The problem is not the euro, but those who indebted the country to its eyebrows.

With these premises, the most reasonable prediction is that nothing moves until the balance of power within the EU changes. Although it is worth remembering that economic predictions often age poorly.