Euribor at 3.2%: Ceiling at 4% or Path to 5%?

Euribor reaches 3.2%, leading analysts to debate whether rates will peak at 4% or climb toward 5%. Variable mortgages are becoming expensive while those with fixed rates breathe a sigh of relief.

English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published

Euribor at 3.2%: Ceiling at 4% or Path to 5%?
Euribor at 3.2%: The Escalation Nobody is Stopping

The Euribor has reached 3.2%, its highest level in years. Those with variable mortgages watch anxiously, while those who signed fixed rates are pleased. The question hanging over the market is how much higher it will go.

The Euribor Escalation: How Far Will It Go?

There are two camps. One maintains that the indicator will touch 4% and halt, as the European Central Bank (ECB) will do what is necessary to prevent the European economy from suffering. The other does not rule out that it could exceed 5%, fueling antiestéticars of a new crisis. References to 2007, when the property bubble burst, resonate in the comments.

The Drama of Variable Mortgages

While some signed fixed rates at 1.6% in 2021 and are relieved, others face soaring payments. For example: with a down payment of 120,000 euros and a fixed rate of 3.5% over 30 years, the monthly payment is around 1,400 euros. But for those with variable rates, every rise in Euribor is a direct blow. Some even wonder if 4% plus the differential will be a living death for many.

The Shadow of 2007

The comparison with 2007 is not coincidental. The sense of déjà vu mixes with the irony of those who bought cash and do not know what Euribor is. The market, meanwhile, continues to rise. No one knows if the ECB will allow the indicator to exceed 4% or if social pressure will halt it. Uncertainty is total.

Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (22 replies).

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