€55k invested, portfolio down 0.77% since November

€55k in US stocks, seven months, and a -0.77% portfolio

Seven months in the US stock market, just over €55,000 committed, and returns flirting with zero. This is the status of an individual investor who started buying in November and saw their portfolio suffer partial drops of 18% along the way.

As of the latest review, the position recovered from -6.87% to -0.77% in just one month. Part of this improvement, according to the investor's account, comes from rising stock prices and a slight appreciation of the dollar. Contributions continue: another €550 was added to the S&P 500 ETF this month. The strategy is that of someone who does not intend to move anything for three decades.

What’s inside the portfolio: four stocks and an index

Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Visa. Four names. The first three are companies that nearly monopolize computer and mobile technology; the fourth earns its revenue from transaction fees in any currency, providing natural inflation hedging.

The selection method was not based on personal analysis. The investor admits they fed charts, indicators, and company results into a paid version of ChatGPT and accepted the model's conclusion: "I inputted short-, medium-, and long-term stock charts and indicators for many S&P 500 companies." The AI convinced them these four stocks were the best choices for the medium and long term.

Public reaction was mixed. Some praised the selection: good companies, hold them, and accumulate during downturns. Others, more critical, argue the stocks were bought at high valuations, noting only Google traded at reasonable prices. Among critics, one diagnosis states Apple is stagnant and overpriced, predicting a sharp correction if it occurs. In response to warnings about total loss, the investor replied sarcastically: if these five positions result in losing everything, then everyone has a problem.

The dollar: the variable no one watches but everyone suffers

Here lies the factor that distorts the numbers. With the S&P 500 surpassing 6,000 points, the portfolio barely moved. The reason? A weakening greenback. Buying US stocks from Europe is a double bet, as the investor describes bluntly: a falling dollar drags down performance even when the index rises.

Their forecast for year-end is explicit: "I expect a year-end close around 6,450 points on the S&P 500 and a EUR/USD rate of 1.10, resulting in a net value of approximately €58k by December 31st." Other analyses point in the opposite direction. Some argue the dollar is deeply bearish and the pair could reach 1.20 before returning to 1.10. If correct, the portfolio would lose value purely due to exchange rates, without any company underperforming.

Risk assessment is relevant. According to their calculations, the portfolio has a beta of 0.85, and the owner understands this: volatility does not keep them awake at night. This is a long-term accumulation profile, not trading.

Dividends vs. accumulation: two distinct savings philosophies

The investor has a clear framework: dividends are not a priority. They prefer accumulation because the investment horizon is very long, and they do not want liquidity events that reduce the market value of their position. This stance contrasts with those who choose companies based on shareholder returns, buy cheap, and feel comfortable only when prices are depressed.

"I am someone who seeks dividends, and I like companies when they are strong and offer attractive payouts," summarizes another approach. The underlying idea: view stocks as real estate assets, where price increases don't boost ego nor decreases cause antiestéticar. Two philosophies that rarely intersect because they pursue different goals.

The million-euro retirement goal and financial independence

The stated objective is to retire with one million euros or more. Approximately 30 years remain. Projected from €55,000, this requires sustained returns and contributions over three decades, which the author acknowledges while admitting they need liquidity for other purposes.

This opens another gap. Some argue financial independence is a utopia, that compound interest takes too long, and that €500,000 allows for a decent life in small or medium cities unless one is financially irresponsible. Others add a nuance money cannot solve: reaching retirement age is not guaranteed.

With these figures, the strategy seems reasonable, yet the result remains mediocre. How much of that -0.77% is due to company performance, and how much is attributable to the euro refusing to weaken?