Ethereum: time to buy or a passing bubble?

Ethereum: the 24% surge that reignites the debate over its ceiling

Just over a year ago, Ethereum experienced a 24% jump in 24 hours. The price was around $1,947 and, for some, that candlestick confirmed a bullish structure that would take the cryptocurrency to $6,000 and even $8,000. The euphoria contrasted with those who still saw Bitcoin and Monero as the only reliable store of value.

The bullish thesis: BlackRock, DeFi and volume
The optimists' main argument rested on the tokenization of real-world assets by major institutions such as BlackRock, and on Ethereum's DeFi ecosystem, considered the most powerful and with the largest number of projects. According to this view, high fees were not an obstacle but proof that the network supports massive activity. Demand for ETH to pay gas and execute smart contracts would grow with every new project, which would sooner or later be reflected in the price. The prior accumulation, with "excessive" volumes on the monthly chart, was the prelude to a vertical move.

The counterpoint: Bitcoin's scarcity and competition
On the opposite side, it was pointed out that Ethereum lacks Bitcoin's programmed scarcity. Without a fixed issuance cap, monetary inflation —though reduced after The Merge— does not guarantee the same long-term appreciation. In addition, competitors such as Solana or Berachain offered faster and cheaper alternatives. The controversy over whether the SEC would classify ETH as a commodity or a security added regulatory uncertainty. The key date was May 23, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was due to rule on spot Ethereum ETFs.

The shadow of dubious projects
The debate also served to expose projects such as Pi Network, criticized for holding on to users' cryptocurrencies and monetizing through advertising without any real distribution. Meanwhile, Ethereum remained the number one platform by total value locked, although the flight of liquidity to other chains was a growing risk.

Time has put everyone in their place. Those who bought during that surge watched the price fluctuate without reaching $6,000 so far. The SEC decision, which was awaited at the time, remains a determining factor for Ethereum's future today. As one participant put it: "Watch out, it's going down the drain." Or to the moon.