Electoral Board: 400,000 'Grandchildren Law' nationals vote on Nov 29

Spain's Electoral Board confirms 400,000 'Grandchildren Law' nationals vote on Nov 29

Spain's Electoral Commission has officially confirmed that at least 400,000 citizens naturalized under the so-called Grandchildren Law (Ley de Nietos) will be allowed to vote in the November 29 elections. This figure, previously circulated as a rumor, is now an official statistic. The announcement has sent shockwaves through an already tense political landscape, where every seat is contested in provinces decided by just a few thousand votes.

The origin of the controversy

The Grandchildren Law, enacted in 2022, allows descendants of exiles to obtain Spanish nationality. Critics argue the law has been applied with lax criteria, enabling hundreds of thousands of people who have never lived in Spain to gain nationality and, consequently, voting rights. After reviewing the census, the Electoral Board concluded it cannot verify case-by-case if applicants meet strict requirements, so it has included them all in the electoral roll.

Impact on seat distribution

These new voters, known as CERA (Electoral Register of Spaniards Abroad) votes, are distributed by province based on their ancestors' last residence in Spain. This means less populous provinces like Teruel, Soria, or Cuenca could see their census increase by thousands, altering seat allocation. Some calculations suggest the PSOE could gain up to 23 additional seats, though there is no official confirmation.

Political reactions

The opposition has denounced a potential electoral fraud (pucherazo). Vox has announced it will appeal to the Supreme Court (Tribunal Supremo) for a ruling before the elections. The People's Party (PP) has demanded an urgent review of the census. The Government defends the legality of the measure and accuses the opposition of trying to delegitimize the electoral process.

Mail-in voting under scrutiny

The main concern is not just the inclusion of these voters, but the lack of controls on mail-in voting. Historically, CERA voting has been questioned due to the absence of chain-of-custody guarantees. In recent elections, irregularities were detected in some embassies, where photocopies of passports were allegedly used to vote. The opposition antiestéticars this mechanism could be used to inflate the PSOE's results.

What does the Supreme Court say?

The Supreme Court has yet to rule on precautionary measures imposed in 2023, which prevented the inclusion in the census of those naturalized under the Grandchildren Law who could not prove they were children or grandchildren of exiles. The Electoral Board argues it lacks the capacity to review all files, so it has included everyone. The ball is now in the Supreme Court's court, which must decide whether to maintain or lift the precautionary measures.

Precedent from previous elections

In the general elections of July 2023, CERA votes were decisive in some constituencies. In Madrid, one seat went from the PSOE to the PP by a margin of less than 1,000 votes. In total, over 100,000 CERA votes were counted, the majority for the PSOE. This experience has led the opposition to demand stricter controls.

The legal battle

The appeals filed by Vox and the PP are based on the alleged illegality of the decree instruction that allowed mass naturalization. According to the appellants, the law was approved without mandatory reports and against opposing opinions. The Supreme Court has already admitted several of these appeals for processing but has not set a date for resolution. Meanwhile, the Electoral Board maintains its decision.

Economic consequences

Beyond the political impact, the inclusion of these voters has economic consequences. Many reside in countries like Argentina, Mexico, or Venezuela, and their votes could influence policies affecting foreign investment or trade agreements. Additionally, the cost of managing CERA voting has skyrocketed: in 2023 alone, Correos (Spain's postal service) allocated over 2 million euros for this purpose.

Uncertain future

With less than a month until the elections, uncertainty is at its peak. If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the appellants, hundreds of thousands of votes would be annulled. If it rules against them, the PSOE could benefit from a flood of votes that, according to critics, will decide the outcome. In any case, the debate on the legitimacy of overseas voting is more alive than ever.