Electomanía poll gives PSOE 103 seats and BOCS 100

PSOE holds on with 103 seats and BOCS threatens to catch up

The new Electomanía estimate gives PSOE 103 seats, a figure that a critical camp considers too high for what, in their view, the party deserves. On the other side, BOCS appears with the potential to reach around 100 seats. Anyone adding up all the projections will find that the overall figure exceeds the 350 seats that make up the Congress of Deputies.

BOCS's drag, according to this same reading, is not ideological in the classic sense: it is a mix of drawing-room liberalism and old-school traditionalism that keeps it from taking off despite its growth. At the other end, Podemos seems wounded: the purple party would be left with six seats according to the figures circulating.

Where does PSOE get such resilience? The most widespread explanation points to clientelism: salaries, benefits, contracts and subsidies. Millions of people would depend, directly or indirectly, on the payments keeping coming. The historical comparison applied to PP and PSOE is inevitable: Cánovas and Sagasta, same dog, different collar.

In parallel, a faction clearly in favour of PP and Vox governing together in order to dismantle identity policies accepts that the labour cost may be high. It is a trade: ideological water in exchange for consideration. In short, the poll has put on the table a map that was not on the front page.

The figure of 103 has a catch: if PSOE reaches that number, the investiture bloc shifts, but the overall arithmetic still doesn't add up. The poll has calmed some and enraged others; only natural in a democracy.