Diesel at 2 euros and no general strike: the numbers don't add up

Diesel at 2.2 euros: the paradox of the 82-dollar barrel

How do you explain a litre of diesel costing around 2.2 euros with Brent crude at 82 dollars a barrel? In 2008, with oil at 147 dollars, a litre cost between 1 and 1.3 euros. The math doesn't add up, and the search for those responsible remains open.

A cheaper barrel and a more expensive pump

The numbers speak for themselves. Just over a decade ago, Brent hit historic highs at 147 dollars and diesel in Spain ranged from 1.0 to 1.3 euros per litre. Now crude trades at 82 dollars and a litre costs over 2 euros, approaching 2.2 in much of the country. The relationship between oil and fuel has broken down. Part of the explanation lies in taxation: Germany's special diesel tax is 47.04 cents per litre, compared with Spain's 37.9, with the European minimum at 33. But Spanish VAT, at 21%, raises more than Germany's, at 19%. Then there's the comparison with other countries: in Croatia a litre costs 1.62 euros and in Germany 2. The crude is the same; the pump is not.

Hormuz, the real player

Political explanations fall short. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 15 July, with Iran firing missiles at ships, has moved the price of crude and, with it, that of diesel. Blaming the rise on the government of the day is an ideological shortcut that doesn't survive the calendar. Geopolitics has mattered more than party labels. Even so, some point out that the barrel is relatively cheap: at 79 dollars, far from the 147 of 2008. If it reached 150, the impact would be of another magnitude.

Profits that fill the tank

While drivers pay, oil companies smile. Repsol booked a positive equity effect of 823 million euros in the first half from the revaluation of its inventories and the rise in crude, which pushed its net profit to 2,201 million euros, up 265% on the previous year. You don't need to be overly suspicious to suspect that, with these figures, the urgency to lower prices is not the priority.

The strike that stays on the beach towel

And the general strike? With August in full swing, beaches and beach bars packed, the call has little traction. What's more, the political divide is such that each side waits for the other to govern before protesting. The Overton window has already been shifted by the price hike two years ago and the normalisation of high prices. Resistance has moved from the driver's seat to the sofa. On this basis, the strike some are hoping for will stay parked.

Meanwhile, the price per litre keeps climbing. And the next time someone invokes the government of the day, it's worth remembering that we all pay the same for crude; the difference comes from tax policies and geopolitics. But that doesn't fill the tank, of course.