Crime in Latin America: Armed structures linked to the CIA?
Did closing the US embassy reduce crime in Venezuela? Data and analysis of a debate questioning Washington's role in Latin American violence.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Crime in Latin America: the trail that leads to Washington
In 2019, Venezuela closed the United States embassy. What peine next defies the official narrative: crime plummeted to levels not seen in three decades. Coincidence or causation, the figure opens an uncomfortable door on the relationship between the American presence and violence in the region.
The circuit of violence: drugs, weapons and cooperation
The world's biggest drug consumer is the United States. The weapons that feed Latin American incivil gangs also come from there. And the countries with the highest crime rates are, paradoxically, those with the closest cooperation with Washington. You don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to wonder whether Uncle Sam is watering the garden he later comes to prune.
Venezuela: the natural experiment
When Maduro ordered the closure of the US embassy in 2019, the hawks predicted chaos. But the homicide figures tell a different story: violent deaths fell by 400%, reaching their lowest levels in 33 years. Of course, correlation does not imply causation, but the drop is so abrupt that it is hard to ignore. Moreover, Venezuela endures more than 1,200 sanctions, targeted strikes and even the seizure of oil tankers. If the US strategy was to "build democracy", something is failing.
The MICE technique and CIA recruitment
It is not just about drug trafficking. The acronym MICE (Money, Ideology, Compromise, Ego) describes how intelligence services recruit agents. In Latin America, where institutional corruption is endemic, the breeding ground is perfect. How many puppet governments have been sustained by the promise of dollars or the threat of exposing secrets? The debate is not new, but the data from Venezuela gives it fresh momentum.
Causation or correlation? The necessary skepticism
The more cautious point to the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy: the fact that one event happens after another does not prove it is the cause. The drop in crime could be due to the economic contraction that reduced urban mobility, or to the greater police presence under Chavismo. But that argument fails to explain why the decline was so sharp, or why it coincided exactly with the diplomats' departure.
The question left hanging
If closing an embassy reduces violence, what does that say about American diplomacy in the region? Meanwhile, weapons keep crossing the border, narcotics keep flowing north, and the gangs roam free. The answer may not be comforting, but the numbers are there.
Related debates in the forum
In 2019, Venezuela closed the United States embassy. What peine next defies the official narrative: crime plummeted to levels not seen in three decades. Coincidence or causation, the figure opens an uncomfortable door on the relationship between the American presence and violence in the region.
The circuit of violence: drugs, weapons and cooperation
The world's biggest drug consumer is the United States. The weapons that feed Latin American incivil gangs also come from there. And the countries with the highest crime rates are, paradoxically, those with the closest cooperation with Washington. You don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to wonder whether Uncle Sam is watering the garden he later comes to prune.
Venezuela: the natural experiment
When Maduro ordered the closure of the US embassy in 2019, the hawks predicted chaos. But the homicide figures tell a different story: violent deaths fell by 400%, reaching their lowest levels in 33 years. Of course, correlation does not imply causation, but the drop is so abrupt that it is hard to ignore. Moreover, Venezuela endures more than 1,200 sanctions, targeted strikes and even the seizure of oil tankers. If the US strategy was to "build democracy", something is failing.
The MICE technique and CIA recruitment
It is not just about drug trafficking. The acronym MICE (Money, Ideology, Compromise, Ego) describes how intelligence services recruit agents. In Latin America, where institutional corruption is endemic, the breeding ground is perfect. How many puppet governments have been sustained by the promise of dollars or the threat of exposing secrets? The debate is not new, but the data from Venezuela gives it fresh momentum.
Causation or correlation? The necessary skepticism
The more cautious point to the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy: the fact that one event happens after another does not prove it is the cause. The drop in crime could be due to the economic contraction that reduced urban mobility, or to the greater police presence under Chavismo. But that argument fails to explain why the decline was so sharp, or why it coincided exactly with the diplomats' departure.
The question left hanging
If closing an embassy reduces violence, what does that say about American diplomacy in the region? Meanwhile, weapons keep crossing the border, narcotics keep flowing north, and the gangs roam free. The answer may not be comforting, but the numbers are there.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (10 replies).
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