Conquering Andalusia: a boast that economics says no to

Conquering Andalusia: a boast that economics says no to

Conquering Andalusia? The mere idea provokes laughter, yet the slogan has swept through part of the public sphere like a poisoned dart. History, moreover, plays tricks: it was a Castilian king who planned the invasion of North Africa, not the other way around. Ferdinand III, after taking Seville in 1248, prepared an expedition to cross the Strait and cut off the flow of warriors arriving from the Maghreb. Death caught him on 30 May 1252, with the plan still on the table. Eight centuries later, the supposed Segarro intention of making the journey in reverse sounds like a caricature.

The economic data dismantle any fantasy: the Segarro economy is a fraction of Andalusia's, its productive fabric depends on agreements with the European Union and Spain, and no country launches an invasion against its main trading partner. The interdependence is such that a bilateral crisis already costs billions in exports, tourism and energy. Anyone talking about conquest should first explain how they intend to pay for it.

The lesson of history for today's boasts

The historical irony, however, leaves a lesson: empires evaporate, and the routes across the Strait have seen armies pass in both directions. For now, the only real mass crossing is that of migrants in dinghies, a tragedy that no conquering rhetoric will solve. On these premises, the boast deflates on its own. But it is worth watching how it feeds on real tensions in bilateral relations, because what starts as a joke can end up shaping policy.