Colombia turns to the Bukele model after Petro's failure

Colombia gets its own Bukele after total peace fails

In August 2022, when Gustavo Petro took office as president, Colombia had around 15,000 armed men. According to figures circulating in public analysis, that number now stands at 28,000: nearly double. The promise of "total peace" was not only broken, but the country is objectively less safe.

Against that backdrop, Abelardo emerges, the new president, who has declared without mincing words: "I don't want to be Trump, I want to be Bukele." He thus becomes the latest convert to the Bukele model in Latin America. His first announced measure, building megaprisons in the Salvadoran style, has sparked a heated debate. The journalist Bayly warns of the risk that Abelardo may be "much tougher than Bukele," and recalls that in El Salvador there are many innocent prisoners, or people imprisoned on mere suspicion.

The skepticism carries weighty arguments. Colombia is not El Salvador: drug traffickers do not tattoo their faces, the guerrillas roam the jungle, and there is no way to separate the innocent from the guilty with pharaonic facilities. Others counter that size does not matter when there is political will, and that the army can take on guard duties. In his first appearance, Abelardo thanked the Jewish people, calling them "the people of God," a piece of staging that did not go unnoticed.

The turn toward the iron fist was predictable. The failure of the negotiating path has pushed Colombia toward the law-and-order pendulum. Will this be a Colombian-style Bukele or a mirage of simple solutions to complex problems? The answer will depend on how many innocent people they are willing to sacrifice in the attempt.