CIS poll: Spain's regional map nobody believes
Spain's CIS pollster shows the PSOE winning in Madrid and Málaga, contradicting recent elections. An analysis of the gap between its forecasts and actual results.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
CIS poll: Spain's regional map nobody believes
According to the latest CIS barometer (Spain's official polling institute), the PSOE would win the general election in regions such as Madrid and Málaga. A scenario that clashes head-on with recent results: barely two weeks ago, the PP took 44% of the vote in Málaga, more than all the other parties combined. In Madrid, Ayuso's majority is unassailable. And in Guipúzcoa, Bildu beat the PSE by 8 points in the last general election. How can the CIS paint such a different map?
The contradictions with electoral reality
The Málaga figure is not the only one that grates. In Valencia, the PSOE also appears as the winner, even though the PP clearly won there in the 2023 regional elections. In Andalusia, where elections were held two weeks ago, the CIS had predicted a PSOE comeback that never peine. The gap between what the ballot boxes show and what Tezanos's institute publishes is so wide that some analysts call the map "fictional".
The CIS's credibility in question
CIS director José Félix Tezanos draws criticism from every party except the PSOE. His polls tend to overestimate the Socialist party, especially since he took office. In this case, the discrepancy is so glaring that even from circles close to the Government, people are asking whether it makes sense to keep an institution that produces data nobody buys. "If it were real, Sánchez would call an election immediately," some experts quip.
Poll or propaganda?
The question that remains is why the CIS keeps publishing maps that stray so far from electoral reality. Some point to an attempt to demobilize the conservative vote by showing a scenario favorable to the PSOE. Others, more simply, think Tezanos is blind and manipulates the samples. The truth is that, with each new barometer, the CIS loses a little more of the little authority it had left.
Related discussions in the forum
According to the latest CIS barometer (Spain's official polling institute), the PSOE would win the general election in regions such as Madrid and Málaga. A scenario that clashes head-on with recent results: barely two weeks ago, the PP took 44% of the vote in Málaga, more than all the other parties combined. In Madrid, Ayuso's majority is unassailable. And in Guipúzcoa, Bildu beat the PSE by 8 points in the last general election. How can the CIS paint such a different map?
The contradictions with electoral reality
The Málaga figure is not the only one that grates. In Valencia, the PSOE also appears as the winner, even though the PP clearly won there in the 2023 regional elections. In Andalusia, where elections were held two weeks ago, the CIS had predicted a PSOE comeback that never peine. The gap between what the ballot boxes show and what Tezanos's institute publishes is so wide that some analysts call the map "fictional".
The CIS's credibility in question
CIS director José Félix Tezanos draws criticism from every party except the PSOE. His polls tend to overestimate the Socialist party, especially since he took office. In this case, the discrepancy is so glaring that even from circles close to the Government, people are asking whether it makes sense to keep an institution that produces data nobody buys. "If it were real, Sánchez would call an election immediately," some experts quip.
Poll or propaganda?
The question that remains is why the CIS keeps publishing maps that stray so far from electoral reality. Some point to an attempt to demobilize the conservative vote by showing a scenario favorable to the PSOE. Others, more simply, think Tezanos is blind and manipulates the samples. The truth is that, with each new barometer, the CIS loses a little more of the little authority it had left.
Related discussions in the forum
- Intxaurrondo abandona rtve · 94 respuestas
- Ahora resulta que el Hermano músico no es músico · 71 respuestas
- La Ertzaintza sospecha que el club de Igorre llevaba años vendiendo lotería de más · 13 respuestas
- Un desperdicio. La más inteligente de España y tiramos su talento dejándole estudiar carreras DE LETRAS · 30 respuestas
Also available in: Deutsch
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (24 replies).
More summaries
-
Spain's Socialists collapse in Aragon as Podemos exits regional parliament
The PSOE in Aragon hits a historic low and Podemos loses its seat, while the PP consolidates and Vox surges in the regional election.
-
Migratory Regularization and the Electoral Census: The Debate Dividing Spain
Migratory regularization and the electoral census: figures, accusations of rigging, and the European precedent. An analysis of a debate redefining the map...
-
Morocco accuses Spain of exploiting migration for electoral gain
Morocco accuses Spain of refusing to return its unaccompanied minors and of using migration for electoral purposes. Police are investigating an NGO linked to the PSOE that handles migrant minors.
-
Spanish rower Jennie Sanchez quits sport for OnlyFans
With nearly 900,000 followers and a modest rowing scholarship, Spanish athlete Jennie Sanchez turns to digital content.
-
Zapatero's father dies in Spain at the age of 100
The father of former Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has died in León at the age of 100. The news quickly turned into a debate about jewels, inheritance and postal voting.
-
Extremadura cuts income tax and boosts health: the budget that upends expectations
Extremadura approves Spain's lowest income tax and raises health spending to 40% of the budget: the first PP and Vox budget breaks the fiscal playbook.