China's demographic collapse: 0.8 children per woman

0.8 children per woman: China's demographic collapse is now structural

China's fertility rate stands at around 0.8-0.9 children per woman, half a point below the US figure and far from the 2.1 needed to guarantee generational replacement. Technically, this is a collapse, not just a crisis. The consequences are anything but abstract: the pension system is approaching a point of no return as the number of active contributors keeps shrinking.

What caused it? Skyrocketing youth unemployment and housing prices that make moving out an impossible dream. The one-child policy, in force until 2016, did the rest: it left a generation without a family support network and a demographic pyramid already distorted, with empty high-rises as the perfect metaphor for a future that never quite arrives.

Overproduction versus falling domestic demand

The paradox is that this demographic collapse coincides with a record trade surplus. According to Foreign Affairs, China racked up nearly $1.2 trillion in surplus last year, accounts for around 30% of global industrial output, and could reach 45% by 2030. The imbalance is visible in cars: the country can produce some 25 million electric and hybrid vehicles, but only consumes about 12 million.

Meanwhile, in the US the fertility rate is 1.6 children per woman. It's no paradise, but every country has its own burdens. In China, the weight of pensions promises to blow up public finances. Some pin their hopes on AI and robotization as a lifeline; others expect a war to 'clear out' the excess capacity. Neither of those will pay a pension.

And what lesson does Europe draw from this mirror? The same dynamics, but without the welfare state China lacks. The question is not how long the mirage of lit-up skyscrapers lasts, but when the blackout will start to be felt.