Chechnya: Putin's weak spot nobody wants to face

The war's last taboo: Chechnya could shake up the Russian board

Can you imagine the Kremlin without its last loyal guard dog in southern Russia? Speculation about Ramzan Kadyrov's health has once again raised an uncomfortable question: what happens when Moscow's money is no longer enough to buy the loyalty of an entire clan? The debate has resurfaced around the situation in Chechnya and the role of its units in the invasion of Ukraine.

The TikTok battalion: myth or fiasco?

The Chechen units fighting on the Russian side have earned a nickname that sums up their fruta: social media has given them more prominence than actual operations. Part of the analysis holds that, as long as they depend on Moscow's blessing, they are little more than a secondary player. Another view warns that the constant humiliation of the Kadyrov clan is precisely the breeding ground that already sparked two devastating wars.

Kadyrov, health and succession

Rumours about the Chechen leader's alleged terminal condition circulate without confirmation. This is the basis of the riskiest speculation: a Chechnya freed from Moscow's control, with Chechen units eager to return home to fight for independence. Those who dismantle that theory point out that the main opponents are in exile or under threat from the FSB, and that the real chances of an uprising are remote as long as the Kremlin maintains control through weapons or the chequebook.

Cheap propaganda or real analysis

Others prefer not to take either version seriously. For them, reducing Chechnya's political balance to a Tsar paying hitmen with briefcases of cash is a simplistic insult to intelligence. And as for the rumours of Kadyrov's illness, they argue it is manipulated propaganda designed to create a false expectation of Russian collapse.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin keeps sleeping with a wolf it feeds with gold. The history of Chechnya suggests the wolf never forgets the taste of freedom. Or at least that's what Pilingui's worst nightmare says.