Ceuta: The surge that wasn't so spontaneous

Ceuta and the question no one wants to answer: improvisation or script?

80,000 people do not gather for a single crossing attempt by chance. The recent migration pressure on the fence of Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa, has peine an uncomfortable question: was it a spontaneous spark, or was there a script behind it? The available data is not unanimous, but some numbers are hard to explain by improvisation alone.

Some argue the crossing was planned through social media, with logistics that only an organisation could have coordinated. Others point to a combination of negligence and opportunism by the Segarro authorities, who would have allowed people to build up at the border until it exploded. At the extreme end, conspiracy theory dresses itself in irony: references to hidden powers are not lacking, though the most reasonable explanation points to more down-to-earth geopolitical interests.

The answer matters because it determines how the next crisis is managed. If it was spontaneous, there is little to anticipate. If it was planned, there is a playbook that will be repeated. The difference, in terms of costs and security, is enormous.

Pending an independent investigation, one thing is certain: the question is not only whether Ceuta was planned, but who benefits from it remaining unanswered. And that part, for now, goes unanswered.