Ceuta: The Strait as an Asset and the Debate Over a Protectorate
Ceuta, situated in the Strait, faces the theory of seeking a foreign protectorate due to economic dependence and arrival figures that are inconsistent.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Ceuta, Gibraltar II: The Strait as a Geopolitical Asset
Ceuta has the opposite problem of almost any territory: it doesn't lack strategic value, it lacks someone to defend it. Located on the southern shore of the Strait of Gibraltar, the autonomous city sustains a double tension: its economic dependence on Spain and what some view as a failure of the State to protect its territorial integrity. The thesis driving the debate is as radical as it is simple: if the State fails to deliver, the city itself should negotiate with another power for a status of protectorate or association.
The Strait, an asset that cannot be left to rivals
The geopolitical argument has the most traction. The Strait is not just water: it is a position of control, and positions of control are disputed even without open war. The precedent invoked is the missile crisis in Cuba, where the decisive factor was not the island itself but the point from which it was aimed.
Under this logic, and according to one participant, the United States would gain little in Ceuta, as it already has allies on both sides of the Strait. Russia, however, would gain much: a base in the area, close to its Algerian partner and within easy reach of Gibraltar. The hypothesis of a Russian protectorate in the Strait, however improbable it may seem, best illustrates how far the territory's value exceeds its population.
20% of the city dependent on benefits
On the economic front, the discussion points to a structurally deficient model, which one participant attributes to the European regulation under which the city operates. A calculation circulated in the debate places around 20% of the population living off benefits. Those defending independence add that establishing a private army and an ecosystem of businesses capable of sustaining the budget without state transfers would be necessary.
The large numbers from this simulation—how much a private defense would cost, how much differentiated taxation would contribute—do not converge in any scenario. This is precisely where the proposal either breaks down or holds up.
Article 155 versus Article 8: the legal dispute
The path to forcing an autonomous city is not easy. Applying Article 155 requires an absolute majority in the Senate, and the debate recalls its application in the Catalan case. Simultaneously, Article 8 of the Constitution assigns Armed Forces the mission to guarantee sovereignty and defend territorial integrity. This leads to the recurring reproach: that this mandate has not been executed, and that a State which does not defend its territory loses the authority to demand loyalty.
The case of Somaliland circulates as an uncomfortable reference: a territory that declares independence and finds only one state willing to recognize it. Gibraltar is also cited, and it is recalled that foreign allies have historically treated their smaller partners as bargaining chips.
The disconcerting data
On the ground, the figure that breaks any analysis is the discrepancy: some maintain that the government spoke of around 2,000 people pending departure, while the counted figure exceeded 12,000. With that margin of error, any debate about the future of the city begins with an uncomfortable question: what data can we trust?
Ceuta has the opposite problem of almost any territory: it doesn't lack strategic value, it lacks someone to defend it. Located on the southern shore of the Strait of Gibraltar, the autonomous city sustains a double tension: its economic dependence on Spain and what some view as a failure of the State to protect its territorial integrity. The thesis driving the debate is as radical as it is simple: if the State fails to deliver, the city itself should negotiate with another power for a status of protectorate or association.
The Strait, an asset that cannot be left to rivals
The geopolitical argument has the most traction. The Strait is not just water: it is a position of control, and positions of control are disputed even without open war. The precedent invoked is the missile crisis in Cuba, where the decisive factor was not the island itself but the point from which it was aimed.
Under this logic, and according to one participant, the United States would gain little in Ceuta, as it already has allies on both sides of the Strait. Russia, however, would gain much: a base in the area, close to its Algerian partner and within easy reach of Gibraltar. The hypothesis of a Russian protectorate in the Strait, however improbable it may seem, best illustrates how far the territory's value exceeds its population.
20% of the city dependent on benefits
On the economic front, the discussion points to a structurally deficient model, which one participant attributes to the European regulation under which the city operates. A calculation circulated in the debate places around 20% of the population living off benefits. Those defending independence add that establishing a private army and an ecosystem of businesses capable of sustaining the budget without state transfers would be necessary.
The large numbers from this simulation—how much a private defense would cost, how much differentiated taxation would contribute—do not converge in any scenario. This is precisely where the proposal either breaks down or holds up.
Article 155 versus Article 8: the legal dispute
The path to forcing an autonomous city is not easy. Applying Article 155 requires an absolute majority in the Senate, and the debate recalls its application in the Catalan case. Simultaneously, Article 8 of the Constitution assigns Armed Forces the mission to guarantee sovereignty and defend territorial integrity. This leads to the recurring reproach: that this mandate has not been executed, and that a State which does not defend its territory loses the authority to demand loyalty.
The case of Somaliland circulates as an uncomfortable reference: a territory that declares independence and finds only one state willing to recognize it. Gibraltar is also cited, and it is recalled that foreign allies have historically treated their smaller partners as bargaining chips.
The disconcerting data
On the ground, the figure that breaks any analysis is the discrepancy: some maintain that the government spoke of around 2,000 people pending departure, while the counted figure exceeded 12,000. With that margin of error, any debate about the future of the city begins with an uncomfortable question: what data can we trust?
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (128 replies).
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