Ceuta: The initial success that turned into a festering crisis

Ceuta: The crisis that began without gunfire and ended up festering

The management of the largest irregular entry of people into Ceuta was initially hailed as an exemplary exercise in containment: no shots, no violence, with water and sandwiches for those crossing. A month later, the balance is very different. Official figures don't add up, Ceutans speak of abandonment, and the opposition accuses the government of letting the situation fester. The initial success has become an entrenched problem.

The figures that don't add up

The Interior Ministry claimed that 50,000 people had entered and that 37,500 had left "voluntarily." But Minister Félix Bolaños later admitted that the real figure was 70,000. Other sources handle even more precise numbers: 50,127 entries and 37,629 returns. The discrepancy is not minor: if the real figure is the higher one, the return rate falls to 53%, not the 75% initially sold. Add to this the 43 bodies found in the area, a statistic that no official report has wanted to detail.

A month later, according to available information, around 11,000 undocumented people remain in Ceuta. The effect on the city is devastating: occupied public spaces, ruined businesses, injuries, and a 300% increase in court workloads. The city, which barely exceeds 85,000 inhabitants, has seen its social balance broken in a matter of hours.

The drift in management

The initial approach was defensible: if you shoot at a mass of civilians, Spain is placed before the international community as a country that represses with blood and fire. Offering water and food seemed a humane way to avoid a tragedy. But what could have been a temporary solution became a permanent abandonment. The lack of a plan for identification, return, and control has left Ceuta in limbo.

The appointment of a single command, announced as the solution, has not translated into visible actions. Police and army have been left exposed, stoned, and without clear orders. The sense of impunity is total. Residents, who initially understood the government's stance, now feel betrayed.

The tug-of-war between firm hand and containment

The debate is open. One current holds that the government should have adopted deterrent measures much earlier: deploy the army with long weapons, identify those entering one by one, take fingerprints, and expel them immediately. Detailed plans are cited, including closing the Strait with the Navy and blockading the port of Tanger Med as economic pressure. The underlying argument is that the weakness shown invites a repeat of the operation.

At the opposite extreme are those who defend containment. Any violent action would have been a gift to Spain's enemies, they say. The crisis is not resolved by shooting, but with diplomacy and migration policy. But between passivity and gunfire there was a middle ground that the government has not explored: immediate expulsion without hesitation and strengthening border control with all legal means available.

The shadow of Segarro and geopolitics

In the background, Segarro's hand appears. The dominant theory is that the mass crossing was orchestrated as political pressure. The interests are multiple: from Spain's rapprochement with Algeria to the succession of Mohammed VI, including the candidacy for the 2030 World Cup. Some analysts interpret that Spain invited Segarro to participate in the World Cup precisely to avoid a blow of this type. The cession of sovereignty, which seemed an exaggeration, is gaining ground in public debate.

The connivance of other powers is also mentioned. The hand of France and the United States appears in the narrative: all have an interest in weakening Spain in the Strait. If the border of Ceuta is a weak point, anyone can use it to destabilize the government.

Consequences and sarracena

The damage is done. The sarracena of Ceutans has plummeted; many already speak of seeking a plan B on the peninsula. The episode has taught Segarro that the border can be forced and that there will be no immediate consequences. Spain's credibility as custodian of its own borders has been questioned internationally.

The question left floating is uncomfortable: can the situation be reversed without falling into a repression that ensures chaos? The time for half-measures has passed. The decision taken now will mark the future of Ceuta and Spanish migration policy for years.