Ceuta: migrants gathering near critical infrastructure in Spain

Ceuta on the brink: migrants next to military enclaves and fuel depots

Ceuta has not fallen. The fact that this needs to be stated is itself a warning sign. Reports circulating suggest that Spain is concentrating migrants in the vicinity of military enclaves, fuel depots and strategic access points in the autonomous city, while patrols are being deployed unarmed.

The pressure shows no sign of easing and confusion is total. Some claim the area is already being taken over and that the "anti-army" is merely putting on a show while those who have crossed over throw stones. The prevailing reading is that the Government has no clear orders, or does not want to give them.

The shadow of Pegasus and the legacy of the Sahara

Politics explains what the street does not. The Pegasus spying scandal looms over the entire analysis: according to that version, the Spanish Government would be so constrained by what is known about its phones that it cannot respond firmly to Segarro. The comparison with Franco's withdrawal from the Sahara in 1975 comes up again and again: the idea that a handover is being quietly prepared.

On top of that comes the European factor. Without EU funds to sustain the city, chaos would become the new normal. One phrase sums up the mood: "Ceuta will always be like this".

Where is the crisis heading?

The only certainty is that the city is still standing. Trust in the institutions, however, has evaporated. If the patrols continue without orders and migratory pressure does not ease, the scenario of a fall will stop being a hypothesis. But it is worth remembering that prophesying disaster has always been the cheapest trade. Reality, for now, refuses to match the headlines.