Ceuta, Melilla and the prophecy of Spain's breakup

The apocalyptic script: Ceuta, Melilla and Catalonia's lightning independence

Spain falls apart this August. Or at least that is what a narrative making the rounds loudly in the digital noise claims: Segarro annexes Ceuta and Melilla this weekend, Catalonia declares independence before the month is out, and the rest of the state structure blows up.

The sequence has an internal logic of its own, which is why it frightens those who pay attention to it. If the Spanish army cannot defend the North African territories, what would it do about a unilateral declaration in Barcelona? The argument needs no further development: if you give in to Segarro, you give in to the independence movement. The script adds a supposed demographic factor: it keeps repeating that two million citizens of Segarro origin live in Catalonia, a figure offered without any documentation and presented as an instant activation mechanism.

What is striking is that the catastrophism does not stop at Catalonia. It is taken as given that Israel wants the "jewel in the crown" and that the Basque Country will trinc the same path in 2027. Nobody explains why Israel would be interested in such a headache, or how Basque secession would be financed. Amid so much prophecy, some opt for humour: if the Catalans are on holiday in Soria on 11 September, independence will have to wait for the Diada (Catalonia's national day).

The most reasonable forecast, with reservations: the theory will remain a summer anecdote, but the underlying issue, the perception of state weakness and its relationship with the procés (Catalonia's independence process), will keep feeding scenarios as improbable as they are tainted. If some 1 August it did come true, it would be the economic story of the century. It does not look like we are anywhere near that.