Ceuta crisis boosts Vox to second place

Ceuta crisis propels Vox toward second place

The escalating tension at the Ceuta border has reshaped the electoral landscape. In just over a month, Vox’s voting intention has risen by two percentage points, according to current analysis data. The question is no longer whether Abascal’s party is growing, but whether the migration crisis can consolidate it as the country’s second political force.

The Ceuta factor: the vote catalyst

The Ceuta crisis has acted as an accelerator. The comparison with Germany is inevitable: there, the AfD capitalized on immigration discontent. Here, Vox is reaping the same rewards without much effort. The strategy is simple: let the government wear itself out while migration pressure does the work. As argued in analyses, the party doesn’t need a program when reality serves up the campaign on a silver platter.

Has Vox hit its ceiling?

Not everyone believes this rise is sustainable. Some argue that Vox has already reached its peak, that its natural electorate is saturated, and that new voters are of low quality. Others see room for growth: the Ceuta crisis has only just begun, and if it worsens, protest votes could swell further. The doubt is whether the party can maintain focus or if the media system will manage to neutralize it.

The electoral system brake

But there is a structural obstacle. Catalonia and the Basque Country account for 22% of the population, where Vox has a weak presence. In Catalonia, the party holds 11 seats in the regional parliament, and polls suggest a rise to 15, but the situation in the Basque Country is more complicated. While a vote counts the same in Málaga as in Bilbao, the possibility of Vox becoming a national second force clashes with territorial realities. Brussels’ demand for a minimum 5% threshold for parliamentary representation, which the government ignores, is another element that could change the map, but it has not been applied to date.

PSOE’s resilience: the immovable sect

What is most surprising is the PSOE’s resistance. Despite the crisis, it barely loses votes. Some attribute this to an almost sectarian loyalty among its electorate, who vote for the party regardless of circumstances. Others point to strategic voting still working: many left-wing voters prefer the PSOE rather than risk a right-wing government. The result is a deadlock: the two major parties have such solid bases that change can only come from the margins.

Future scenario

If the Ceuta crisis deepens, the scenario is uncertain. Vox could become the second force, but the electoral system and the loyalty of PSOE voters are difficult barriers to overcome. The paradox is that, despite the rise, the PSOE remains there, almost intact. The disorienting fact: during a border crisis, the party managing the crisis barely loses support, while the opposition grows without doing anything. No one knows how long this dynamic will last, but the board is no longer the same.