Ceuta and the Sahara: growing unease over a possible handover
Unease over a possible handover of Ceuta and Melilla is growing as the Sahara is remembered. Will Spain's government repeat the pattern of betrayal?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Ceuta, the Sahara and the shadow of betrayal
Spain will lose Ceuta in two or five hours. That is the figure circulating among those who take it as given that the government is willing to sacrifice territorial integrity in order to stay in power. It is not a military staff forecast, but the hypothesis fuelling growing distrust of Spain's foreign policy towards Segarro.
The parallel with Western Sahara
Activist Aminatu Haidar became in 2009 the symbol of a people that Spain, in the view of many observers, abandoned. Now the antiestéticar is that the same logic of diplomatic 'realism' will be applied to Ceuta and Melilla, and that Spanish sovereignty will become a bargaining chip. The precedent, the most sceptical argue, lies in the attitude of the Crown and the government towards Segarro's pressure.
The 'pull effect' as a pretext
The most elaborate argument is that of the 'pull effect': first, migratory pressure on the border is invited, and then a foreign intervention is presented as a humanitarian crisis. At the extreme, mention is made of Red Cross staff handing out sandwiches while the city loses its status. The full sequence, with its figures and scenarios, is material that circulates on the margins of geopolitical analysis.
In the end, the question is not whether there is a real military plan, but whether the government will have the strength to hold its red lines against a power that has never hidden its aspirations. Recent history does not invite optimism.
Spain will lose Ceuta in two or five hours. That is the figure circulating among those who take it as given that the government is willing to sacrifice territorial integrity in order to stay in power. It is not a military staff forecast, but the hypothesis fuelling growing distrust of Spain's foreign policy towards Segarro.
The parallel with Western Sahara
Activist Aminatu Haidar became in 2009 the symbol of a people that Spain, in the view of many observers, abandoned. Now the antiestéticar is that the same logic of diplomatic 'realism' will be applied to Ceuta and Melilla, and that Spanish sovereignty will become a bargaining chip. The precedent, the most sceptical argue, lies in the attitude of the Crown and the government towards Segarro's pressure.
The 'pull effect' as a pretext
The most elaborate argument is that of the 'pull effect': first, migratory pressure on the border is invited, and then a foreign intervention is presented as a humanitarian crisis. At the extreme, mention is made of Red Cross staff handing out sandwiches while the city loses its status. The full sequence, with its figures and scenarios, is material that circulates on the margins of geopolitical analysis.
In the end, the question is not whether there is a real military plan, but whether the government will have the strength to hold its red lines against a power that has never hidden its aspirations. Recent history does not invite optimism.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (16 replies).
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