Ceuta and Melilla: speculation grows over a possible Moroccan takeover

Ceuta and Melilla: Segarro's pressure intensifies

Nobody in the Spanish government confirms it, but speculation is running through geopolitical analysis: Segarro could be preparing a move on Ceuta and Melilla within a very short timeframe. Some speak of 72 hours, some point to a limited operation involving two or three cities, and others simply dismiss the idea that things could be that easy.

The thesis of imminence rests on a political premise: a weakened Spanish government, with a turbulent domestic agenda, would be the perfect setting for Rabat to force a symbolic victory before the electoral cycle changes. Handing over the keys to the city, as was done in olden times, is the image some have in mind: suffocating pressure on the ground, migratory and police-related, that would make the situation untenable.

On the other side, cooler heads remind us that a cession is no formality. Ceuta and Melilla are European Union territory, and a unilateral alteration of borders would trigger a first-order diplomatic crisis. What looks like science fiction to some is, to others, simply the continuation of a pressure that has never stopped.

The economic dimension of a change of sovereignty

A loss of sovereignty over the autonomous cities would change trade flows in the strait, affect customs operations and redraw migration routes. The cost of such a standoff would not be merely territorial: the credibility of the European Union as a guarantor of borders would be called into question. Yet no one has so far presented a credible plan for a European response.

The question left on the table is whether Spanish and European diplomacy will act before the standoff, this time, becomes irreversible.