Brent hits $100: energy crisis or just a scare?

Brent at $100: passing storm or geopolitical warning?

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[P]Brent crude has once again topped $100 a barrel, a level that, according to historical data, has held for more than 1,700 days this century. The question dividing analysts is whether this rise reflects real geopolitical tensions or just market noise. While some see the start of an energy crisis, others see it as a buying opportunity.[/P]

The data behind the price

[P]Brent crude has hit intraday peaks of $112, although the underlying trend points to consolidation in the three-digit range. The key factor is the depletion of strategic reserves in the United States and the European Union, which have been used to contain inflation in recent months. Once that artificial injection of crude stops, supply will shrink drastically.[/P]

[P]Moreover, the Strait of Hormuz, through which between 20% and 30% of the world's oil passes, is back in the crosshairs. The threat of closure by Iran's new leadership is no bluff: if it materializes, the price of a barrel could soar well above $100.[/P]

Two opposing views

[P]On one side, part of the analysis community believes the rise is structural. The combination of low reserves, growing global demand and geopolitical risks suggests oil will stay expensive for months. On the other, some argue it is just noise: markets react to headlines, but global output remains sufficient, and the $112 peak was an anomaly caused by trading algorithms.[/P]

[P]Historical data backs the skeptics: this century, oil has spent more than 1,700 days above $100 without a global economic collapse. Still, every context is different, and the depletion of strategic reserves adds an unprecedented vulnerability factor.[/P]

What to expect?

[P]Time will tell whether crude consolidates in the three-digit range or whether, as has peine before, supply manages to stabilize. Meanwhile, the market keeps dancing to the rhythm of the headlines. The coming week will be key: any statement from Tehran or any US inventory data can move the price violently.[/P]

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