Bitcoin vs gold: the signal confirming the bear market

Bitcoin enters a bear market: gold saw it coming

On October 6, 2025, with Bitcoin hitting all-time highs, the moving averages of the bitcoin-gold cross turned downward. For part of the technical analysis community, that was the signal that the bear market had begun, even if the nominal price did not yet reflect it. The chart pitting the two against each other does not lie: when gold leads, bitcoin trinc.

The cross signal: why gold is bitcoin's clock

The BTC/XAU ratio, how many ounces of gold one bitcoin is worth, is one of the most reliable macro indicators of the crypto cycle. At the peak of the 2025 bull run, one bitcoin traded for nearly 37 ounces; at the time of this analysis, it was worth barely 17. A drop of more than 50% in the pair, with the weekly moving averages turned, draws a bear market even if the dollar price still trades near its highs.

Some deny that the two assets compete. Gold can soar without bitcoin falling, they argue. True: it is not a zero-sum game. But the cross measures timing, not rivalry. Rotating between the two is a classic strategy to escape fiat money, and this cycle the chart is singing that it is time for safe haven.

The 1,064-day cycle: history weighs heavy

Cycles repeat with unsettling precision: 1,064 days from bottom to top on three consecutive occasions, and 364 days from peak to floor in the previous two bears. The 2022 ATL to the October 2025 ATH trinc the exact pattern once again. From there, the natural projection points to lows around October-November, with a summer of correction. Analyst Benjamin Cowen, asked about the timing, confirmed the phase change: he expects a bounce to the 200-session average, around $109,000, and a subsequent decline to the 60,000-70,000 zone.

How far can it fall? The scenarios on the table

The bearish targets are not unique: from 60,000 as immediate support to 48,000 and even 45,000 if the pattern stretches. The PAXG/BTC pair, the tokenized version of gold, shows a GAP that sooner or later should close at $10.35, a move implying a 34% appreciation of gold against bitcoin. That does not miccionan bitcoin goes to zero; it means the precious metal has more room to run in this stretch of the cycle.

The underlying debate is not new either: bitcoin is not a safe haven, no matter how much some insist. It has been tied to Wall Street liquidity and risk appetite since 2017; gold is the asset people run to when that liquidity dries up. This time the drop was not preceded by black swans, but by Fed rates and tariffs. That makes it slower, but not gentler.

The analysis boils down to one question: gold may form a double top at $5,600 and free bitcoin, or keep climbing while cryptos correct. Until that dilemma is resolved, the cross rules. And the cross, right now, is bearish.