Bitcoin Golden Cross: $36,000 to $69,000 in 150 Days

Bitcoin Golden Cross: $36,000 to $69,000 in 150 Days

A forecast dated May 31, 2021, with Bitcoin at $36,000, promised a 3x return in two months. It did not reach $100,000, but on November 1 of that year, according to the forecaster's own assessment, Bitcoin hit its all-time high above $69,000, nearly double the starting point. The cited trigger had a name: golden cross, the upward crossover of short-term moving averages over the 200-session average. It came with charts, precedents, and an expiration date.

What is a Bitcoin Golden Cross and what was expected?

The mechanism is simple to state and hard to believe. The 10-session and 20-session moving averages cross above the 200-session average, while the 50-session average approaches touching that same long line. Once this combination was complete, the prediction was a 2x or 3x in 20 or 30 days. Before that, according to the same premise, the price would remain in the UVI, oscillating around $35,000 for over a month.

In the drawing prior to the signal, the 10 and 20 averages crossed below the 200 average one month before the supposed trigger. That was the map drawn on the chart, line by line, with the explicit warning that no one should make investment decisions based on what they read.

From $8,000 to $60,000: The Cited Precedents

The previous Bitcoin golden cross was dated May 2020 and took the price from $8,000 to over $60,000: nearly an 8x in one year. From this emerged the most ambitious projection, $240,000 if the pattern repeated. It was not the only example invoked. ZEN made a 10x in five months from its crossover. ANKR, a 6x in one month. PAXG, the gold-backed token, a 2x in six days during a market crash.

The graphical breakdown of each of those crossovers, with their overlapping lines and dates, is the fine part of the argument and is only hinted at here. The conclusion drawn from all of them was always the same: the pattern holds as an unavoidable physical law.

From $100,000 to $320,000: The Escalation of Targets

First, $100,000. Then, $240,000. Later, $320,000 for May of the trinc year. Each revision relied on a multiple already seen: the initial 3x, the 8x reference from 2020. The signal was dated June 8, 2021, at 18:00 and presented as the start of the movement, with an unsettling warning: if external factors did not appear, Bitcoin would not be seen again at $32,000.

Five days later came the reinforcement. The crossover of the 100-average with the 10-average gave a buy signal and the price was already 14% higher. The trend, they said, was confirmed.

Are Moving Average Crossovers Reliable?

Here the sustancia ilegal begins. Part of the analysis argues that averages and their crossovers are merely indicative tools that must be taken with caution, and that if they were 100% reliable, any average investor would know when to enter and exit. The response from the other side was blunt: anyone can verify that they do not fail.

In parallel, another current warned that too many people were waiting for the $20,000 zone as an entry point and that many cryptocurrencies had gained capitalization against Bitcoin in those months, which would push money back toward the dominant asset. Dominance would move, according to that impression and without supporting data, between 50% in a bear market and 30% at the peak. And the energy argument loomed: a very expensive Bitcoin makes it profitable to drain energy for mining, opening the door to bans and regulatory persecution.

El Salvador and the Narrative of Attacking the Dollar

In June 2021, El Salvador approved its Bitcoin Law with 62 out of 84 votes. The geopolitical reading was quick: for some participants, remittances from emigrants could be sent without banks or intermediaries, which was interpreted as a frontal blow to the dollar's position in the region.

The Result: What Peine with the Golden Cross

The sequence remained thus. Signal on June 8. Buy crossover on June 13. And on November 1, Bitcoin at all-time highs above $69,000. One hundred fifty days between the forecast and the peak. The $100,000 and $240,000 targets were not reached within the announced timeframes, and as a bonus remains a calculation that circulated in the thread: whoever had put €100 into Bitcoin in 2011, with the price at one dollar, would have, according to that account, $3,600,000.

The question is no longer whether the pattern exists. It is how long it takes to see it again. The most convinced did not give a specific date for the next crossover: the author of the forecast limited himself to suggesting that "the savvy" already knew, approximately, when. And without a date, a golden cross is just one line crossing another.