Anthropic delays the robotics revolution: robots are too costly until 2050
Robots cover 34% of working hours in the US, but outperform a human in just 0.3% of tasks. It will take 40 years to reach 10%.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Robots already do a large share of physical work, but they are only cheaper than a human in 0.3% of tasks. At the rate prices have fallen in recent decades, it would take about 40 years to reach 10%.
## Where robots already work, and where they don't
In the **United States**, robots cover around three quarters of physical tasks, which account for **34%** of all working hours. Almost always in controlled environments: factories, warehouses, hospitals. On the street, only autonomous vehicles stand out.
If language models are included, about **20%** of work remains uncovered. Mostly tasks that require face-to-face interaction or fine motor skills.
## Price is the bottleneck
Today a robot outperforms a human in just **0.3%** of tasks. At the pace prices have fallen in recent decades, it would take about **40 years** for that figure to reach **10%**.
That pushes any mass substitution well beyond this decade. Anyone with a breakdown at home can breathe easy.
## Who will notice first
Drivers, warehouse and packing workers are the most exposed: lower-paid trades, with less education and more men. Nursing and repairs are largely spared.
Trades that have already been through automation have seen employment and wages fall. Taxi drivers and packers will notice the change before nurses or mechanics. In office work, the rival is not the robot, it is the language model.
## Where robots already work, and where they don't
In the **United States**, robots cover around three quarters of physical tasks, which account for **34%** of all working hours. Almost always in controlled environments: factories, warehouses, hospitals. On the street, only autonomous vehicles stand out.
If language models are included, about **20%** of work remains uncovered. Mostly tasks that require face-to-face interaction or fine motor skills.
## Price is the bottleneck
Today a robot outperforms a human in just **0.3%** of tasks. At the pace prices have fallen in recent decades, it would take about **40 years** for that figure to reach **10%**.
That pushes any mass substitution well beyond this decade. Anyone with a breakdown at home can breathe easy.
## Who will notice first
Drivers, warehouse and packing workers are the most exposed: lower-paid trades, with less education and more men. Nursing and repairs are largely spared.
Trades that have already been through automation have seen employment and wages fall. Taxi drivers and packers will notice the change before nurses or mechanics. In office work, the rival is not the robot, it is the language model.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (4 replies).
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