AfD edges closer to power in Germany
Polls give the AfD majorities in Germany, but the protest vote does not translate into a clear economic programme. Abstention will decide.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The rise of the AfD in Germany: punishment for the system or a real alternative?
The possibility of Alternative für Deutschland winning absolute majorities in several German states is no longer a theoretical exercise. While polls show it with a level of support the system does not know how to process, the economic analysis focuses on an uncomfortable idea: a protest vote is not the same as a governing programme.
Some argue that critical problems are not solved with moderate solutions or conventional voting. Others point to what peine in Spain: when the winning party is not seen as scary, it gets surrounded; when it is seen as scary, it gets surrounded too, only with deals that hollow out the election result. The analogy weighs heavily, and not just in Berlin.
The polls say less than they seem to
A look at the international compilations of surveys on a hypothetical ban of the AfD leaves a question unanswered: in that scenario, how many of its voters would stay at home? Abstention is the figure that would decide whether such a measure protects democracy or empties it.
The discussion ends where the dilemma begins: the AfD could govern, but the German economy faces an uncertain cost between regulatory gridlock, tensions with Brussels and a cordon sanitaire that nobody wants to apply in full. With abstention as the unknown, Germany is peering into an alley with two exits, and both come at a price.
The possibility of Alternative für Deutschland winning absolute majorities in several German states is no longer a theoretical exercise. While polls show it with a level of support the system does not know how to process, the economic analysis focuses on an uncomfortable idea: a protest vote is not the same as a governing programme.
Some argue that critical problems are not solved with moderate solutions or conventional voting. Others point to what peine in Spain: when the winning party is not seen as scary, it gets surrounded; when it is seen as scary, it gets surrounded too, only with deals that hollow out the election result. The analogy weighs heavily, and not just in Berlin.
The polls say less than they seem to
A look at the international compilations of surveys on a hypothetical ban of the AfD leaves a question unanswered: in that scenario, how many of its voters would stay at home? Abstention is the figure that would decide whether such a measure protects democracy or empties it.
The discussion ends where the dilemma begins: the AfD could govern, but the German economy faces an uncertain cost between regulatory gridlock, tensions with Brussels and a cordon sanitaire that nobody wants to apply in full. With abstention as the unknown, Germany is peering into an alley with two exits, and both come at a price.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (13 replies).
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