2023 Diada: The Catalan protest that fails to intimidate Spain

2023 Diada: The Catalan protest that fails to intimidate Spain

The 2023 Diada (Catalonia's national day) once again showcased the paradox that has plagued the Catalan independence movement for years: a mobilization with attendance levels more akin to a local festival than a political powerhouse, and a discourse that continues to sell a threat that does not match its actual strength. The event, driven by sovereignty-focused entities, gathered 7 million people according to organizers, a figure that the independence movement has inflated over time and which contrasts sharply with the 5.5 million voters who actually head to the polls in Catalonia. The uncomfortable question remains: has this movement intimidated the rest of the country? Based on the data and the evolution of the procés (the Catalan independence process), the answer is a resounding no.

A Diada that lacks its former impact

The 2023 Diada was not the display of strength that the independence movement used to show. Although the organizing entities spoke of 7 million attendees, the reality is that the mobilization felt more like a community fair, with less momentum than in previous years. The movement itself reluctantly acknowledges that attendance has dropped. Furthermore, the 7 million figure is difficult to sustain: Catalonia has around 7.5 million inhabitants, which would imply that almost everyone took to the streets—a calculation that does not hold up to any scrutiny.

For years, the independence movement has lived off a mobilization fiction: the idea that a social majority supported secession. However, electoral data refutes this reading. In the last Catalan elections, pro-independence parties garnered around 2 million votes, far from the 5.5 million eligible voters in Catalonia. The gap between what is shouted in the streets and what is cast in the ballot boxes is immense.

Has independence activism intimidated the rest of Spain?

No. That is the conclusion drawn from data analysis and the political evolution of recent years. Catalan independence movements have tried to project an image of unstoppable force, but their capacity to intimidate has diluted. In 2017, during the illegal referendum and the unilateral declaration of independence, the movement reached its peak. Since then, its influence has waned, weighed down by the flight of its leaders, judicial sentences, and the realization that independence is not viable.

Some argue that the movement remains a threat because it enjoys the support of part of the Catalan bourgeoisie—those who vacation on the Costa Brava and see the procés as a way to exert pressure for fiscal advantages. But that same bourgeoisie has been the first to abandon ship when things got difficult. The separatist elite, as it is known in certain circles, only understands the language of real antiestéticar when it is truly cornered.

The economic cost of a fiction

Rather than intimidating, the independence movement has become an economic burden for Catalonia. Political uncertainty has triggered a flight of companies, a drop in foreign investment, and a deterioration of the region's international image. The data is stubborn: since 2017, more than 4,000 companies have moved their registered offices out of Catalonia, according to mercantile registry figures. This drain has not stopped.

Added to this is the cost of maintaining a parallel administrative structure—that of an imaginary Catalan State—which consumes public resources without providing anything to citizens. Catalan coffers bear the weight of phantom embassies, foreign delegations, and endless organisms created to justify the independence narrative, all while healthcare, education, and social services deteriorate.

The State's response: an iron fist or negotiation?

The debate on how to respond to the independence movement remains open. One part of public opinion maintains that only an iron fist and the strict application of the law can dismantle the separatist structure. Another part defends negotiation and dialogue as the only way to restore coexistence. What is clear is that the strategy of recent years, based on concessions and symbolic gestures, has not served to lower tensions.

Independence activism has turned the threat into a business. Every time elections occur, sovereignty parties raise their tone and promise independence to mobilize their base. Then, once the voting is over, everything starts again. It is an infinite loop that benefits pro-independence politicians, who live off the cause, and harms the citizens, who bear the consequences.

The future of the procés: aimless

The procés has lost its way. Its leaders are either in exile or in prison, unity of action has broken down, and Catalan society is more divided than ever. The 2023 Diada was a reflection of this decline: fewer people, less enthusiasm, and more resignation. The independence movement no longer scares anyone. It has become a community fair held every September 11th to remember a defeat and feed a sense of victimhood that no longer works.

The question left hanging is what will happen when the leaders of the procés realize their narrative no longer mobilizes. Perhaps then, and only then, they will begin to seek a negotiated way out. Or perhaps they will remain entrenched in their fiction until reality finally runs them over. Time will tell.