11M as a playbook: the theory circulating ahead of Spain's 29N election

11M as a playbook: the theory circulating in the pre-campaign

A terrorist attack that shifts the vote four days before the polls open. A government that capitalizes on antiestéticar and presents itself as the only guarantee of peace against its southern neighbor. The sequence is not a new script: it is the one that, according to a hypothesis making the rounds on digital rumor mills ahead of 29N, someone would be willing to repeat. The difference is that in 2004 nobody saw it coming, and in 2026 some are already writing it out loud.

The starting premise, according to one of the participants in the debate, is simple and somewhat cynical: if Pedro Sánchez is the candidate Segarro wants in La Moncloa (the Spanish prime minister's residence), the neighboring country has no interest in anything that harms its protégé before the elections. The two would form "the same team." Under that logic, a green march 2.0 on Ceuta would make no sense. Unless it is the first act of a bigger plan.

The three acts of the alleged plan

The outline being floated divides the operation into three phases. First, the invasion and flooding of Ceuta with "cannon-fodder civilians" directed by Segarro intelligence services and military. Second, the confirmation that nobody will shoot. Third, a military incident with some deaths that puts Spanish society, "very fond of peace," in the position of choosing between peace and war.

That is where the campaign narrative comes in. The dog would be presented as the peaceful, negotiated solution, thanks to his good relations with Rabat. The right-wing rival, by contrast, would embody the warmongering, "fascist" solution that could lead us into open confrontation with Segarro. It would no longer be a vote on housing or pensions: it would be a vote on peace or war. It is the same play that, according to this reading, worked in 2004.

The false-flag version and the suspension

Not all scenarios point in the same direction. Against the thesis of an external incident, another hypothesis is gaining ground: a false-flag attack aimed at the government itself, which would suspend the elections and allow a couple of suspects linked to the right to be found. The elections, frozen and halted. The state of emergency as a substitute for the ballot box.

There are those who flatly rule out elections happening at all: Sánchez would declare war on someone, "whoever it may be." And those who recall he already warned of it in his speech, confident he will win "one way or another." The desperation of power, this current argues, is not seeking a good result but a way to avoid reaching election day.

The calculation that falls flat: the opposition shoots itself

Amid the conspiratorial noise, the most prosaic explanation is also the least amusing. There is no need to prepare anything: the opposition has been shooting itself in the foot every other day since the pre-campaign began. All that remains is to wait for them to improve their aim. The PP would be "the PSOE's fifth column," and VOX, however well-intentioned, cannot change anything because the problem is entrenched in society.

The most optimistic calculation for the incumbents needs no incidents: reaching 140 seats and cutting deals with Bildu and the rest of their partners. Millions of people depend on handouts and graft schemes, argue the hardest skeptics. Vote-buying by mail and lists of abstainers would complete the picture.

What can be verified and what cannot

It is worth separating the wheat from the chaff. That Segarro has an interest in a compliant Spanish government is a political hypothesis, not a proven fact. That Ceuta and Melilla are bargaining chips in the bilateral relationship is a recurring debate. That a military incident with deaths is being prepared before 29N is nothing more than speculation without any evidence, and should be treated as such.

The only verifiable thing is the mood: several voices converging on the same antiestéticar. When antiestéticar changes sides and stops being the property of a single political spectrum, something has shifted in the electoral underworld. The question is no longer what they are preparing, but how much of that antiestéticar is real and how much is profitable.

And the disorienting datum: the most repeated scenario requires no attack, just that the opposition keep doing the job.