Fourteen stocks, 100,000 euros, and a ten-year bet
Fourteen stocks. Nearly 100,000 euros. Two months of analysis and liquidity that currently depends on what is taken out of GameStop. This is the snapshot of a portfolio reconverted to the long term after the market surge in 2020 and early 2021, when its owner decided to take profits, rebuild the entire list, and sit tight. The declared horizon: ten years, "or twenty, hopefully twenty." And one condition: any stock that doesn't withstand scrutiny is out.
From Pro Educa to Meta: the portfolio's entry prices
The breakdown is the most useful part of the strategy. Pro Educa Altus at €15.8; Amadeus at €41; Airbus at €56; MTU Aero Engines at €156; Kri Kri Milk at €6.40; Gerard Perrier Industrie at €62.35; Dollar General at $184; Alibaba at $252; Infosys at $16.9; Nagarro at $84.9; Meta Platforms at $307; Dole at $15.8 and one hundred shares of GameStop at $38. In total, around 100,000 euros, almost no liquidity, and a separate portion in index funds —80% MSCI World, 10% MSCI Europe, 10% emerging markets— with monthly contributions of 500 euros. There is also a position he does not intend to name "because the person who mentioned it most doesn't want to."
Why does Greek yogurt make it into a long-term portfolio?
Because, according to the thesis, it fits the pattern of the boring company nobody watches: healthy accounts, solid margins, zero debt, growth capacity, and expansion plans beyond Greece. The argument adds that inflation benefits it and that a crisis would find it in a better position than competitors. Regarding patents and rivals, the answer is brief: there aren't many, the brand rules, and the product is well valued in its home country. The field check cited is that someone who was there confirmed those yogurts were very good. It's not a financial model, but it is information.
Indexing or picking stocks? The two schools clash
The defense of indexed management relies on an hard-to-refute argument: the best time to index was yesterday. Nobody knows if the market will turn or keep rising for twenty years, so contributing every month averages the price and makes hitting the ceiling unnecessary. Opposing this is the criticism that passive money is homogenizing the market: each company's story matters less and quotes move as a block, up or down 2% depending on the day. The conflict isn't resolved because it is the difference between buying the whole market or buying fourteen specific theses.
The undeveloped warning: International Energy Agency
A warning appears and disappears without explanation. Someone asks if they've heard of the International Energy Agency and asks to include that variable in the equation for a ten-year horizon. The response avoids development and answers, perhaps confusing acronyms, with the atomic energy body. No one returns to the subject. It remains there, like the variable nobody put in the spreadsheet.
The scoreboard: +34.5% in four months and 30% in cash
The year's numbers, according to his own count: January +36.5%, February -10%, March +10.2% and April -1.7%. Cumulative, +34.5%. In parallel, another account boasts having gone from 40,000 to 157,000 euros in four years, with an average annual return close to 25% over nine fiscal years —20,000 initial capital, 8,000 annual contribution and 22% average— and a skyrocketing value of 500% from which profit was taken. These are figures anyone would sign off on and that require the same caution deployed by the list's author: a hit will come. Indeed, there is already movement: Checkpoint Software exited with a 12% profit due to lack of growth and those 6,000 euros went to Meta Platforms. Liquidity hovers around 30%, kept without selling anything, waiting for a bear market.
With that ammunition and fourteen documented convictions, the plan seems bulletproof. What is missing is the only thing that cannot be analyzed with balance sheets: how such a portfolio behaves in the first year everything drops 40%. Does the thesis hold or does the stomach?
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication.
Read the full discussion (141 replies).