Gold nears $2,400, Japan debt crisis looms
Gold approaches $2,400 and silver surges 215%. Japan faces a carry trade trap while global debt risks mount.
Deutsch · Ursprüngliche Diskussion auf Spanisch · Veröffentlicht
Gold and silver at highs: the signal no one wants to see
Gold is trading near $2,400 per ounce, not at $5,000 as some sensationalist headlines claimed. Silver, meanwhile, has surged 215% over the past year to reach $110. At the same time, Japan sees its 40-year bond yield hit an all-time high of 4.2%, while US debt continues to grow without the market seeming fazed. Are we witnessing a simple commodity bull cycle or the prelude to something bigger?
The Japanese carry trade trap
The real elephant in the room isn't gold, but Japan. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been buying its own debt for decades to keep interest rates low, fueling the largest carry trade in history. If the BOJ raises rates to defend the yen, public debt servicing costs skyrocket and the state faces bankruptcy. If it doesn't raise them, the yen collapses and imported inflation destroys purchasing power. They are trapped, and the 4.2% yield on the 40-year bond is the alarm bell no one wants to hear.
Silver: the rally no one expected
Silver has been the big surprise. With a 215% year-on-year increase and 110% in just three months, it far outperforms gold. Those who bought ounces months ago are already seeing double-digit gains. But caution is advised: as veterans recall, gold had a similar cycle between 1980 and 2000, when it lost 85% of its value in real terms and took 20 years to recover. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Collapse or correction?
Two schools of thought are clashing. On one side, those who see the rise in precious metals as a prelude to systemic collapse: the fiat system based on infinite debt is reaching its end, and physical gold is the only true refuge. On the other, those who consider this just another bull cycle within a gradual but orderly process of de-dollarization. A telling data point: China's debt exceeds that of the US relative to GDP, and no major economy has the margin to absorb a global crisis.
Canada's pivot toward China
Amid this landscape, Canada has begun pivoting toward China, seeking to diversify its trade relations beyond the United States. A move that, if confirmed, would accelerate the disintegration of the Western order. Meanwhile, riots erupt in Minnesota reminiscent of George Floyd, and the threat of escalation in Iran hangs over the market.
The question remaining in the air: how long can the system hold up without a shock that changes everything? Gold and silver are providing the answer.
Related discussions in the forum
Gold is trading near $2,400 per ounce, not at $5,000 as some sensationalist headlines claimed. Silver, meanwhile, has surged 215% over the past year to reach $110. At the same time, Japan sees its 40-year bond yield hit an all-time high of 4.2%, while US debt continues to grow without the market seeming fazed. Are we witnessing a simple commodity bull cycle or the prelude to something bigger?
The Japanese carry trade trap
The real elephant in the room isn't gold, but Japan. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been buying its own debt for decades to keep interest rates low, fueling the largest carry trade in history. If the BOJ raises rates to defend the yen, public debt servicing costs skyrocket and the state faces bankruptcy. If it doesn't raise them, the yen collapses and imported inflation destroys purchasing power. They are trapped, and the 4.2% yield on the 40-year bond is the alarm bell no one wants to hear.
Silver: the rally no one expected
Silver has been the big surprise. With a 215% year-on-year increase and 110% in just three months, it far outperforms gold. Those who bought ounces months ago are already seeing double-digit gains. But caution is advised: as veterans recall, gold had a similar cycle between 1980 and 2000, when it lost 85% of its value in real terms and took 20 years to recover. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Collapse or correction?
Two schools of thought are clashing. On one side, those who see the rise in precious metals as a prelude to systemic collapse: the fiat system based on infinite debt is reaching its end, and physical gold is the only true refuge. On the other, those who consider this just another bull cycle within a gradual but orderly process of de-dollarization. A telling data point: China's debt exceeds that of the US relative to GDP, and no major economy has the margin to absorb a global crisis.
Canada's pivot toward China
Amid this landscape, Canada has begun pivoting toward China, seeking to diversify its trade relations beyond the United States. A move that, if confirmed, would accelerate the disintegration of the Western order. Meanwhile, riots erupt in Minnesota reminiscent of George Floyd, and the threat of escalation in Iran hangs over the market.
The question remaining in the air: how long can the system hold up without a shock that changes everything? Gold and silver are providing the answer.
Related discussions in the forum
- UCO raids PSOE headquarters: operation against illegal funding network underway · 222 replies
- Watch out for Javier Ruiz · 44 replies
- How did Enrique Riquelme get rich? · 19 replies
- UCO just entered National Civil Guard headquarters! · 96 replies
Auch verfügbar auf: English
Zusammenfassung einer Diskussion auf Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., aus dem Spanischen übersetzt und vor der Veröffentlichung geprüft. Die ganze Diskussion lesen (218 Antworten).
Weitere Zusammenfassungen
-
Pariser Clubs vor dem Aus: Ende der alten Nachtlebenskultur
Massenschließungen erschüttern das Pariser Nachtleben. Generationswandel, Unsicherheit und hohe Preise setzen die Branche unter Druck.
-
Spanien führt EU-Elendsindex an
Spanien belegt im EU-Elendsindex den ersten Platz. 29 % der Kinder leben unterhalb der Armutsgrenze, der schlechteste Wert seit 2016.
-
Musk: Sohn Xavier starb durch 'Woke-Virus'
Musk behauptet, er sei zur Zustimmung zu Pubertätsblockern für seinen Sohn Vivian getäuscht worden.
-
Streit um Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine und Panzer aus Ceuta
Ein Forum schätzt die Rüstungshilfe für die Ukraine auf 1,1 Milliarden Euro; Berichte nennen 19 Panzer aus den Beständen von Ceuta und Melilla.
-
Youtuber UTBH zieht nach Andorra, um Steuern zu sparen
Der Youtuber UTBH verlegt seinen Wohnsitz nach Andorra zur Steuerersparnis und entfacht die Debatte über legale Steuervermeidung versus Steuerhinterziehung.
-
Privatnutzung von Terrassen: Kein Zutritt ohne Erlaubnis
Ein Nachbar beansprucht die privat genutzte Dachterrasse und verlangt Durchgang durch die Wohnung. Was sagt das spanische Recht?