ponzi
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 13 Oct 2011
- Mensajes
- 9.792
- Fruta
- 9.500
Si señor Claca. Yo no lo hubiese dicho mejor. Aplausos
¿Habéis visto el Ibex 35...? Abril 2012. El mes de pandoro +
- Autor del tema FranR
- Fecha de inicio
- Estado
Si señor Claca. Yo no lo hubiese dicho mejor. Aplausos
Arminio_borrado
Guest
- Desde
- 29 Mar 2012
- Mensajes
- 1.237
- Fruta
- 1.657
Tienes 2 opciones, las cuales pueden ser complementarias:
- Poner orden de compra si cae por debajo de 3,0X con SL en la directriz que pones (con cierto margen, claro).
- Poner orden de compra si supera los 3,XX con SL en un nivel que puede ser la pérdida de algún nivel relevante, por ejemplo, si cae por debajo de la vela de un determinado día o simplemente poniendo lo máximo que estás dispuesto a arriesgar. Si entras en tendencia, dependiendo del impulso que pilles en ese sentido, hasta podrías poner el SL para cubrir posición y rezar para que un pullback no llegue hasta allí.
Como tu dices, si esto fuera fácil pandoro estaría en el INEM y no pluriempleado :
:.Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
La opinión que tengo de este gobierno es que ellos mismos se desautorizaron cuando decidieron subir impuestos nada más llegar al poder. Son unos mentirosos por lo tanto lo que mejor que puede hacerse con cualquier cosa que diga ese hatajo de auténticos incompetentes que forma el gobierno es tomárselo todo como mentiras.
PPCC dice que a la agencia tributaria le han reducido el presupuesto un 5,8% (si no recuerdo mal) y que a los inspectores del fisco les han reducido el poder adquisitvo un 30% entre bajadas de sueldos y subidas de impuestos, por lo tanto menos equipamiento y gente más cabreada para luchar contra el embeleco ¿como van a ir a por algo que no merece la pena?
A todos los conocidos que me han preguntado por el actual gobierno siempre les dije que no llegarían a los dos años de legislatura (algo que ni yo mismo me creía al principio) y cada día que pasa estoy más convencido de que así va a ser, incluso antes de los dos años, ellos mismos están cavando su propia tumba pasito a pasito, es importante procurar que no nos arrastren con ellos, que se caigan ellos solitos que ya lo tienen muy bien merecido, no les demos facilidades para aguantarles en la poltrona, todo vale con tal de que caigan lo antes posible.
En resumen, con menos medios tratar de solicitar información sobre alguien al extranjero va a ser tarea casi imposible y además como esto lleva una ingente cantidad de tiempo es de esperar que antes de que la consigan el gobierno ya haya caido, así que yo creo que mejor no informar, pero bueno esto ya es cosa de cada uno y su conciencia.
Última edición:
ponzi
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 13 Oct 2011
- Mensajes
- 9.792
- Fruta
- 9.500
Tienes 2 opciones, las cuales pueden ser complementarias:
- Poner orden de compra si cae por debajo de 3,0X con SL en la directriz que pones (con cierto margen, claro).
- Poner orden de compra si supera los 3,XX con SL en un nivel que puede ser la pérdida de algún nivel relevante, por ejemplo, si cae por debajo de la vela de un determinado día o simplemente poniendo lo máximo que estás dispuesto a arriesgar. Si entras en tendencia, dependiendo del impulso que pilles en ese sentido, hasta podrías poner el SL para cubrir posición y rezar para que un pullback no llegue hasta allí.
Como tu dices, si esto fuera fácil pandoro estaría en el INEM y no pluriempleado :
Respecto a los bancos medianos este es de los que menos me desagrada. En tiempos de bonanza median muy bien el riesgo de sus clientes a la hora de conceder hipotecas.El problema es que solo operan en España y aqui la situacion no esta para tirar cohetes.Es un banco enfocado principalmente a pymes y pequeños inversores.Yo por los tres bancos que apuesto son por bbva(por su diversificacion geografica y analisis del riesgo),caixa(por su cartera industrial)bankinter(por su analisis del riesgo).Mientras España no levante cabeza por muy buen analisis del riesgo que hagan los de bkt su exposicion 100% a España y mas concretamente a pymes les va a pasar factura.Cuando veais que de verdad las pymes en este pais empiecen a crecer , ese sera el momento de entrar con todo lo rellenito en bkt, en mi humilde opinion creo que ese dia aun no ha llegado.En tiempos de bonanza era muy facil medir el riesgo de cada entiendad,incluso hoy en dia se puede intuir.Solo hace falta conseguir a varios amigos e ir a diferentes bancos y ver cuanto credito se consigue en cada entidad.A modo de curiosidad la pole hace unos años era Caja madrid,caixagalicia,cam,banco valencia,ccm,pastor,popular,banesto,santander,caixa,bankinter,bbva.
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/guarderia/300534-pensais-que-que-postean-habitualmente-hilos-de-bolsa-son-gilipilas-pedantes.html
Yo creo que tienen razón .... ::
Yo creo que tienen razón .... :
:
Última edición:
ponzi
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 13 Oct 2011
- Mensajes
- 9.792
- Fruta
- 9.500
Vamos contracorriente.Dentro de poco nos van atacar los mismos foreros de burbuja.Supongo que esta sera una de las razones por la cual muchos foreros mantienen su hobby en el anonimato.Ahora si que si.Esta es la señal del madmax jajajaja
Última edición:
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Citan al bueno de Votín .... ::
:R3v3nANT
Madmaxista
Ya sabéis que en este país desde hace siglos se persigue lo que no se entiende. Btw, el único analista que tenemos en casa de los padres es porque aún tiene 15 años 😀
Aqui_No_Hay_Quien_Viva
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 28 Jun 2006
- Mensajes
- 3.153
- Fruta
- 2.789
You must be registered for see images
Chicos, fijaros en una curiosidad. El ADX es un indicador como sabéis de intensidad de la tendencia (da igual que sea bajista o alcista) y en general por encima de 25 indica tendencia y en los valores actuales tendencia fuerte. Qué ocurre? pues bien, que se girará y debería quedarle poco o lo que es lo mismo, entrara en una tendencia débil que será la alcista, visitando la zona de intensidad media de 20. No está de más saber que esto ocurrirá.
Bueno, y viendo así por encima, sí que estamos en una zona relevante en cuanto a canales imaginarios. No sé, pero me gustaría que alguién me explique pq vamos a parar en 7000 o 7 mil y poco. Bueno, si, son dígitos bonitos, psicológico, pero me sale más que o rebotamos en esta zona de 7200-7250-7180 o a los 6800-6700 directos (me cuesta creer este descenso y que nos acompañen el resto de índices como dax y etxx50 que ya están en soporte claros,el dax haciendo un triple suelo parece).
Última edición:
Guybrush_Threepwood
Madmaxista
Yo creo que nos vamos más pabajo viendo que tef se descuelga, san se descuelga, bbva lo mismo...
Un grafiquito semanal
[BOFA]
¿Again bank of guano?
Parece que va a corregir.¿hasta donde? Los fibos de la última subida coinciden con muchos niveles relevantes (8.1$ y 7.44$). Más abajo la alcista de largo plazo. Por último el abismo...
Un grafiquito semanal
[BOFA]
You must be registered for see images
¿Again bank of guano?
Parece que va a corregir.¿hasta donde? Los fibos de la última subida coinciden con muchos niveles relevantes (8.1$ y 7.44$). Más abajo la alcista de largo plazo. Por último el abismo...
VLADELUI
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 1 Jun 2011
- Mensajes
- 887
- Fruta
- 796
Y la envidia que es muy mala. La astuta dijo "están verdes".
vmmp29
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 12 Ene 2010
- Mensajes
- 4.594
- Fruta
- 2.625
deacuerdo en todo, pero no es menos cierto que "nuestra comunidad" es otro hatajo de incompetentes y chucópteros, ya que en democracia "la comunidad " elige a sus politicos, por tanto, estamos muy bien representados si bien van a llevar pronto su merecido ganado a pulso y ni siquiera imaginan y a pesar de todo seguiran eligiendolos.
Lo peor es nosotros estamos en medio
Aunque estoy de acuerdo con que el votante medio es un incompetente también en esta ocasión no lo veo justificable, el gobierno dijo hasta el último minuto mentiras rampantes y la gente les votó pensando que eran verdades. Aquí el problema ya no es el electorado como cuando zp, ahora el problema es que la casta miente más que habla, además desde el primer minuto y nadie los está condenando por ello (lo cual quiere decir que ya estamos acostumbrados a ello), me parece un juego muy sucio que ha rebajado toda la apariencia de democracia que teníamos hasta ahora al nivel del subsuelo, yo lo llamaría incluso golpe de Estado.
Última edición:
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.502
- Fruta
- 73.073
El problema de RameroJoy es que ha mentido y queda la sospecha cierta de que lo ha hecho por y para llegar al poder. Eso por sí solo le desautoriza.
Fruta lo ha dejado todo esquilmado y sin posibilidad de reconducir. RameroJoy está aplicando la doctrina ortodoxa como un niño pequeño bien mandado. Lo único que va a conseguir es arruinar la esperanza y el futuro de la próxima generación .... para que después nos quedemos tirados.
Es la misma sensación como cuando uno no vende cuando un valor se pone a bajar. Piensa que el tiempo está a su favor. Cuando más adelante vende porque ya no le queda cash para soportar, piensa que tenía que haber vendido al principio. Exactamente es lo mismo que está haciendo RameroJoy.
Ajetreo
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 7 Nov 2011
- Mensajes
- 1.608
- Fruta
- 1.622
Señor Ponzi tiene usted mucha razón pero está muy adefesio con esa coronita de pichiglas y ese corte de pelo de los ochenta.🙁
Le ruego que vuelva a su ser
bertok
Será en Octubre
Estos me gusta la fruta son capaces de vender a su querida progenitora por un plato de lentejas.
La revuelta social les pondrá en su sitio pero será demasiado tarde. El país está destrozado para un par de generaciones.
Maleta o metralleta (Primero metralleta y luego maleta)
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.502
- Fruta
- 73.073
A mí me parece una buena interpretación.
Lo único que puede hacer un buen inversor (lo diferencio del inversor de éxito que es el que gana pero eso no quiere decir que sea un buen inversor ya que también se puede ganar por fortuna) que para mí es aquel que hace bien lo siguiente:
-Gestiona fenomenalmente el riesgo implícito de una posición. Es decir que no deja nunca que una posición le liquide la cartera. Para eso está el stop loss.
-Gestiona patrones (técnicos o de cualquier otra naturaleza cuantitativa o cualitativa) para determinar puntos de entrada y puntos de salida).
Con esto vale para ser buen inversor. Después influye un poquito la fortuna para ganar mucho dinero o no.
Estamos en el punto en el que un buen inversor .... que es el que también sabe identificar patrones de entrada .... sabe perfectamente que el MIEDO hace vender cuando se va a hacer un suelo (así como no comprar en los suelos) y la AVARICIA hace comprar en los techos (así como no vender en los techos).
Cuando se vende en los suelos, les aseguro que no es porque la gente se vuelve *********** es porque existe un miedo atroz en el entorno y todo parece que se va a hundir definitivamente. El ser humano por definición y así ha sido desde la prehistoria .... busca siempre estar a salvo de las amenazas (que te pegue un bocado un dinosaurio por ejemplo). Eso es genético.
Ahora mismo, yo veo un miedo atroz por todos los sitios. Siempre encontraremos un motivo para pensar en el IBEX 4000 y eso nos obliga a buscar la seguridad.
La prensa está para mejor no verla. Da miedo.
En internet solo se habla de la inminente quiebra, default, quiebra o intervención de España. Hoy mismo me ha llegado un informe de John Mauldin, estoy registrado en su site, y se titula "The War of Spain". No puede haber peor ambiente.
Nadie sabe qué va a hacer el IBEX en los próximos días. Puede bajar a 6600 o incluso más abajo pero hay dos cosas ciertas ....
-Lleva un desplome bestial y necesita oxigeno para seguir bajando. En el lado corto ya existen muchas plusvalías y comenzarán a recogerlas cerrando los cortos.
-Todo indica que hay que estar corto en el mercado. Es demasiado evidente el mensaje que se está lanzando a los inversores y nunca he creido que quienes mueven el mercado .... tengan interés en tener el rol de recomendadores para que la gente gane dinero.
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.502
- Fruta
- 73.073
En 8 dolares hay un buen soporte. Ese 10% de bajada no requiere una bajada grande en el SP.
Las empresas usanas y la banca están muy bien capitalizados y las primeras con más cash que nunca. Eso es muy importante para tenerlo en cuenta porque pueden estar contínuamente recomprando acciones para sostener el chiringuito.
Es tanta la cantidad de cash que tienen, que hay empresas que apenas conocemos .... que tienen liquidez para comprarse un Iberdrola entero.
bertok
Será en Octubre
Esa banterita es insignificante como soporte. Peligro de caida hasta 6,5 - 6,0.
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.502
- Fruta
- 73.073
Si te digo lo que pienso .....
-no creo en los politicos de ningun signo. En mi vida he votado y no veo un motivo por el que lo vaya a hacer. Tengo más identificación con la doctrina conservadora que con la liberal. Con la derecha que con la izquierda. Es por filosofía sobre cómo entienden el pogre.
Pero no voto porque no se votan doctrinas, se vota a personas y el liderazgo de éstas. En España ni un puro lider desde que tengo uso de razón (Felipe, Aznar, Fruta y RameroJoy).
-no confío, nada en absoluto, en que los españoles actúen con valentía anteponiendo los intereses colectivos a los personales. Es una carencia que tienen los españoles al respecto de educación social y sobre cómo entender la comunidad.
Por ello, hace tiempo que estoy convencido, y sobre todo por mis descendientes que:
-Mirar por uno mismo, con honestidad y sin perjudicar a los demás .... pero mirar por uno mismo.
-Esforzarme por tener algo en lo que diferenciarme de muchos otros, de forma que alguien puede pagar bien por mis servicios.
-Ayudar a que mis descendientes tengan una educación y formación formidables así como idiomas .... para que en el futuro puedan elegir.
-Vivir lo mejor posible pero no dejar de lado el ahorro.
-Ser y actuar críticamente con el entorno. Al menos que se vea que no comulgo con la ineptitud y que no soy un borrego manejado.
Caronte el barquero
Será en Octubre
bertok
Será en Octubre
Eso Janus, danos carne shishi :fiufiu::fiufiu::fiufiu:
Janus
Será en Octubre
- Desde
- 18 Ago 2011
- Mensajes
- 44.502
- Fruta
- 73.073
Es demoledor el "Spain Goes "All In".
Por cierto, no se puede ser un FORERO en mayúsculas si no se tiene este informe como cabecera del data streaming intelectual económico de cada uno. Ya están corriendo a registrarse en su site para recibir el informe regularmente. Basta con indicar una cuenta de mail. El site es
Tienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido
The War for Spain
By John Mauldin | April 14, 2012
The War for Spain
Spain Goes “All In”
“We Are Not Greece”
The New Labor Force
A Little Blue Suede Shoe Trouble
I fully intended to ignore Spain this week. Really, truly I did. I had my letter all planned, but then a few notes drew my attention, and the more I reflected on them, the more I realized that the inflection point that I thought the ECB had pushed down the road for at least a year with their recent €1 trillion LTRO is now rushing toward us much faster than ECB President Draghi had in mind when he launched his massive funding operation.So, we simply must pay attention to what Spain has done this week – which, to my surprise, seems to have escaped the attention of the major media. What we will find may be considered a tipping point when the crisis is analyzed by some future historian. And then we'll get back to some additional details on the US employment situation, starting with a few rather shocking data points. What we'll see is that for most people in the US the employment level has not risen, even as overall employment is up by 2 million jobs since the end of the recession in 2009. And there are a few other interesting items. Are we really going to see 2 billion jobs disappear in the next 30 years?
But first, a personal note. My friend and fellow writer/economic blogger Mike "Mish" Shedlock's vvife has ALS, better known as Lou Gehrig's disease. I have talked at length with him the past year as the disease pogre. It is a truly evil affliction. Mish has stayed the course, working with his vvife, and now the options will soon be down to her communicating with a device that trinc her eye movements to choose words on a computer screen. I cannot even imagine the pain of living with a loved one in the condition.
Mish is not asking for anything for his family, but he is sponsoring a raffle for ALS research. Please consider buying one or more tickets, or making a small donation to the Les Turner ALS Foundation. The money will go to research to find a cure, so that someday no one has to go through such pain. Thanks.
The War for Spain
In my book Endgame, co-author Jonathan Tepper and I wrote a chapter detailing the problems that Spain was facing. It was obvious to us as we wrote in late 2010 that there really was no easy exit for Spain. The end would come in a torrent of misery and tears. Tepper actually grew up in a drug rehab center in Madrid – as a kid, his best friends were recovering junkies. (For the record, he has written a fascinating story of his early life and is looking for a publisher.) His Spanish is thus impeccable, and he used to get asked to be on Spanish programs all the time. Until the day came when the government created a list of five people, including our Jonathan, who were basically named "Enemies of Spain," and pointedly suggested they not be quoted or invited onto any more programs.
As it turns out, the real enemy was the past government. We knew (and wrote) that the situation was worse than the public data revealed, but until the new government came to power and started to disclose the true condition of the country, we had no real idea. The prior government had cooked the books. So far, it seems it even managed to do so without the help of Goldman Sachs (!)
In about ten days I will be sending you a detailed analysis of all this, courtesy of some friends, but let's tease out some of the highlights. True Spanish debt-to-GDP is not 60% but closer to 90%, and perhaps more when you count the various and sundry local-government debts guaranteed by the federal government, most of which will simply not be paid. Spanish banks are miserably underwater, and that is with write-offs and mark to market on debts that totals not even half of what it should be. If Spanish housing drops as much relative to its own bubble as US housing has so far (and it will, if not more), then valuations will drop 50%. The level of overbuilding was stupendous, with one home built for every new every person as the population grew. We know that unemployment is 23%, with youth unemployment over 50%. Etc, etc. We could spend 50 pages (which is what I will get you access to) detailing the dire distress that is Spain.
Which brings us to this week. It was only a few weeks ago that most everyone, including your humble analyst, thought that the ECB had bought a little time with its "shock and awe" €1-trillion LTRO. Lots of analysis said there would now be at least a year to put programs in place to deal with the coming crisis.
Yet we may now be fast approaching the Bang! moment when the markets simply refuse to believe in the firepower that whatever governmental entities can muster. It peine with Greece, as it has in all past debt crises. Things go along more or less swimmingly until, as Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart so articulately detail in This Time is Different, we wake up one morning to find that Mr. Market has seemingly lost all interest in funding a country at a level of interest rates that is credibly sustainable. When interest rates ran to 15% for Greece, even arithmetically challenged European politicians could understand that Greece had no hope of ever paying off its debt.
When rates rose last year to almost 7% for Italy and 6% for Spain, before the ECB let loose the hounds of monetization, they were approaching the limits of sustainability. Rates came back down as the ECB either bought directly or engineered the purchase of the bonds of the two countries. But now the LTRO effect appears to have worn off, and yesterday interest rates for Spanish ten-year bonds climbed again to 5.99%. There is a large auction for ten-year Spanish bonds next week, which the market is clearly anticipating with a bit of concern. Meanwhile, Italian interest rates are not rising in lock step, which shows that the anxiety is now clearly directed at Spain. Ho-hum, move along folks, nothing to see here in Rome.
(What trinc now is a mix of the facts as I read them and speculation on my part. I admit I may be reading more into the information, as I squint at it at 3 AM, than is justified. But then again, there is a substantial amount of history that suggests I am not totally off base...)
Spain Goes "All In"
I came across this tidbit from typicallyspanish.com, and my antennae started to twitch (hat tip Joan McCullough). The key is the second paragraph. (Hacienda is the common name of the Spanish tax ministry, otherwise known as the Agencia Estatal de Administración Tributaria.)
"Spain led the loss in the number of self-employed workers in Europe in 2011. One in two of the self-employed to lose their jobs in the EU over the year was Spanish. Seven out of ten self-employed in Spain do not employ anyone else. Over 2011 Europe lost a total of 203,200 self-employed workers, 0.6% fewer than in 2010.
"Trinc the news that cash business transactions over 2500 € are to be banned, Hacienda has said they will not fine anyone who admits that they have been making payments of more than 2,500 € over the previous three months. The cash limit is part of the Governments anti-fraud plans which have been approved today, Friday. Those Spaniards who have a bank account outside the country now face the legal obligation of having to inform Hacienda about the account. The Government hopes its anti-fraud measures will bring in 8.171 billion €."
My fellow US citizens will be saying to themselves, "So what? We have to report our foreign bank accounts, and any large cash transactions are flagged." But gentle reader, this is much different. This is new law for Spain, basically currency control writ large, and bells have to be going off all over Europe.
First of all, note that Greece never tried to require its citizens to report cash transactions or to list foreign deposits. This is the new Spanish government revealing serious desperation. The government's back is to the wall. They have to know they will not collect the taxes they need to generate, but are going to try anyway to demonstrate to the rest of Europe (read Germany) that they are doing everything they can.
In a side note, on Wednesday, Spain's interior minister introduced new measures to thwart plots using "urban guerrilla" warfare methods to incite protests. And the local papers are printing op-eds by economists talking about how the effort to comply with German austerity demands will just make the economy worse, and that the government is not taking into account the resolve of labor unions to oppose them. "Germany is the problem." It pains me to say this (truly it does), but this is what we were writing about Greece, not all that long ago. We are seeing footage of demonstrations, verging on riots. It is a familiar pattern.
Second, let's review what I wrote a month ago. I noted that the LTRO money was being used by Spanish banks to buy Spanish government debt (and Italian banks were buying Italian government debt, etc.). The intention was to help the two countries specifically and Europe in general to finance their debts and allow banks to shore up their capital as part of that effort. But what that does is yield the unintended consequence of making a breakup of the eurozone easier, as it helps get Spanish and Italian debt off the books of German and French banks.
The only reason Germany and France, et al., cared about Greece is that their banks had so much Greek debt on their balance sheets, in many cases more than enough to render them insolvent. Bailing out the banks directly would have been costly, so better (thought the European leaders) to do it with bailouts from funds created with guarantees from the various governments (which is a backdoor way to get it from taxpayers) and the European Central Bank. A crisis was avoided and there was a more or less orderly Greek default – which anybody who bothered to look at the math saw coming well in advance.
A further side note: Spanish-bank borrowing from the European Central Bank doubled last month, "revealing a dangerous dependence on emergency funding that on Friday triggered renewed turmoil in financial markets." (The Telegraph) And the Spanish stock market is down some 30% over the past year.)
So, in the effort to make sure that everyone pays their taxes and to stop tax fraud, the Spanish government is going to find out which of its citizens have moved their money out of Spain. And let's be clear, money has been flying out of the banks of Spain and Portugal (and to some extent Italy) as it did, and still is, in Greece.
And it will be easier to track that offshore money than you think. Some people, I am sure, moved their money into cash and then out of the country. But others simply wired the money, thus leaving a trail. Spanish banking regulators can easily require they be given that information, and what bank will say no to the regulators? Spain does not collect taxes from its citizens if they are residents of a foreign country (as the US does), but it can tax everyone who lives in Spain. And if you live in Spain and decide to diversify your risk among a few other countries? I am not sure of Spanish tax law, but I reasonably assume you are supposed to report all your income from whatever source. (Otherwise there would be no one investing with Spanish banks, brokerages, and investment advisors –if it were legal not to report foreign investments, then everyone would invest outside of the country.)
Let me hazard a modest prediction: We will see a rather sudden and substantial need for physical cash in certain other "peripheral" countries, as now their citizens may not want to leave trails as they go about opening foreign bank accounts. What is to keep Italy from doing as Spain has done? Or Portugal? Or France? Or Germany?
Let me be clear about something. I am not suggesting that people should not pay their taxes. If you choose to live in a country, you should pay the taxes that are required. What Spain is trying to do is simply make sure that all their citizens pay the proper amount of taxes. If there was already 100% compliance, there would be no need for new regulations like Spain's. And the same goes for the US. Our penalties are rather stiff for not paying taxes, more so, I'm guessing, than in most of Europe. I have on more than one occasion noted that the national sport of Italy is tax avoidance.
My friends in Spain tell me a lot of business is done in cash. But that is the case in the US and almost everywhere I go. There are a lot of (ahem) "independent" taxi drivers, services, etc. that do not take anything but cash. Maybe they report everything, but I do not bother to ask. (When I was a waiter in college, did I report all of my tips? I was required to report a minimum amount of income for each hour worked, but did I report everything? Since it has been 40 years and the statute of limitations has run out by now, I might admit to missing a few dollars here and there.)
I imagine there are quite a few Spanish citizens who are not sleeping well this weekend. And more than a few people tossing and turning in other countries as well. If the next month comes and goes without any sign of unusual cash movement in Europe, then I will owe the peoples of peripheral Europe a big apology for doubting their willingness to pay their taxes. Or maybe it will turn out that they were better at "avoidance" than your average American, and planned their movements far in advance...
Let's get back to the central point. Spain is too big to fail and too big to save. The bond markets are clearly getting nervous, much sooner than was planned. Spain is clearly attempting to demonstrate that it will do everything in its power to comply with the new European austerity rules. Yet Prime Minister Mar1 Rajoy has warned that the situation has created "a vicious circle that strangles Spain."
Rajoy delivered a strongly worded speech to parliament, insisting that it was "as clear as day" that Spain would not need a Greek-style bailout. But in recognition that the country is losing market confidence, he appealed to other European leaders to be "careful with their comments" and remember that "what is good for Spain is good for the eurozone." (The London Telegraph)
One can look at the amount of money Spain will need to refinance in the coming year and look at their financial ability, then look at how much can possibly be raised by the European community, even under the proposed new structures, and readily come to the conclusion that there is simply not enough money to save Spain if the market goes Bang!
The only possible solution I see is for the European Central Bank to step in with some new program. ECB President Mar1 Draghi has demonstrated a marked ability to come up with new, creative ways to kick the can down the road. Finding the money to bail out Spain is hopefully in his book of tricks. As fellow central banker Ben Bernanke has noted, Mar1 has a printing press. And the LTRO showed he knows where it is and how to use it.
"We Are Not Greece"
The German Bundesbank is saying as loudly as it can, "QE? Nein!!" But I count only two German votes among the 23 that compose the board of the ECB. Spain is demonstrating to its European brothers and sisters that it is doing all it can. "We are not Greece" is the clear statement. And "We need and deserve your help." Yesterday, Rajoy pointedly noted again that "What is good for Spain is good for the eurozone."
One should not underestimate the willingness of politicians who are viscerally committed to a certain action (in this case European unity) to spend someone else's money in the pursuit of that action. Especially if that money is a hidden tax in the form of debt monetization.
The markets are moving up the time table on the next large monetization of Spanish (and eventually Italian?) debt. Germans will shout that this is inflationary, and for them it probably will be. But much of the rest of Europe is in the grip of deflation. Spain is clearly in a classic Keynesian liquidity trap. This is what can happen when you have very different economies operating under one monetary roof. This is not simply a banking or sovereign-debt crisis, it is about a massive trade imbalance and huge differences in the productivity of labor. The trade imbalance between the south – Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece – and the north (mostly Germany) must be solved before there can be any resolution of the economic crisis. This is Economics 101, which European politicians seem to have slept through.
There will be the attempt to create some sort of fund to buy Spanish debt, but it will prove to not be enough. And given recent market movements, it may not be able to happen fast enough. It will not surprise me if the ECB uses the promise of such a fund as a pretext for acting sooner.
And yes, this will lower the value of the euro. We will have to see how far Europe is willing to push the process. Greece will soon default again (they are in a depression and have a national election in early May), Portugal is still moving toward being bailed out, and the Irish are growing tired of having to repay the British, French, and Germans for bailing out their failed banks. Think bailout fatigue isn't growing among European voters? Stay tuned...
The New Labor Force
I will end this letter with the beginning of what I intended to write originally and hope to finish next week. Work and employment is changing before our eyes in the US and much of the developed world. As the Baby Boomer generation reaches retirement age and finds out that either it cannot afford to retire or does not want to retire, the "trickle-down" effect to younger workers is starting to become apparent in the data.
Let's look at three charts (hat tip to John Hussman, who called this to our attention and got me looking at the details). The first shows the employment level in the US for the last five years. The gray area is the official period of recession. Employment growth since the end of the recession has been only a few hundred thousand jobs a month; but since employment is a lagging indicator, you can claim that we have recovered 4 million jobs since the employment bottom in late 2009 or about 2 million jobs since the 3rd quarter of 2009. It all depends on where you want to start your count. But we are still down roughly 4.5 million jobs since the beginning of the recession. This has been the slowest "recovery" since the end of WWII.
Now let's look at the next chart. This is the employment level for those over the age of 55. Notice that it kept rising all through the recession and especially after. People over 55 have seen their total employment level rise by about 4 million jobs since the beginning of the recession, and over 3 million jobs since the 3rd quarter of 2009. Almost any way you look at it, those over 55 have seen their jobs level improve over those who are younger. If you take the end of the 3rd quarter as your marker, the Boomer generation has seen its jobs level rise by 3 million, while overall jobs rose by just 2 million! Those who are younger are actually falling behind!
And once last chart before we go. Last week we looked at how the civilian participation rate (the percentage of the population who have a job or want a job) for the US has been falling for a decade and especially since the end of the recession. You can attribute a high percentage of the apparent decrease in unemployment to the fall in the participation rate.
Except for one group or cohort. This next chart is the participation rate of those over 65. Their participation rate is rising. The graph is "noisy," but the trend is clear. Whether willingly or out of necessity, older workers are staying longer in the work force. And given the rather lackluster employment growth, they are taking jobs that would normally go to younger workers, which is why we are seeing higher rates of unemployment among the latter. We will go into the why of that next week, but a great deal of it has to do with work skills.
A Little Blue Suede Shoe Trouble
My travel schedule is rather hectic, and I will be on the road some 22 out of the next 26 days. Only in the US, which is easier on my body, but air travel has long lost its romance. Airport security can take the fun right out of travel, not to mention the time. Today I was lost in thought, thinking about this letter as I stood in line. I went through the drill, as I have done hundreds of times, taking out the laptop, taking off the coat and shoes, emptying the pockets, etc. Except this time I forgot the shoes. I went right on through the line with the new body scanners (which for some reason I don't like), then began to collect my gear and noticed my shoes were not in the tray. (And yes, these are the very same blue suede shoes that Swedbank bought me a few weeks ago in Stockholm, when my bags were lost. I have found them to be quite comfortable and stylish travel shoes.)
So I looked down. I was still wearing them. I laughed and remarked about it to the security guy at the tail end of the line and began to leave, when suddenly they stopped everything. Seems I had found a particularly zealous security person. Not only did I have to take off my shoes, but I had to go back through security and get scanned all over again. Next time I will try being funny with a more amenable crowd.
It is time to hit the send button. It is once again late, but I get to sleep a little later here in Frisco, so I can adjust. Have a great week.
Your proud member of the working Boomer generation analyst,
John Mauldin
John@FrontlineThoughts.com
Copyright 2012 John Mauldin. All Rights Reserved.
Share Your Thoughts on This Article
Caronte el barquero
Será en Octubre
Janus, que uno no da más para leer cosas ::...en serio muchas gracias.
Hace dos días estuve revisando por encima el informe del segundo mayor Fondo de inversión
Gracias de nuevo
:...en serio muchas gracias. Hace dos días estuve revisando por encima el informe del segundo mayor Fondo de inversión
Tienes que estar registrado para ver este contenido
el día a día...entre todos aportamos en muchos frentes. Gracias de nuevo
- Estado