What will happen after reopening.
I see many people arguing that it's been a week (or two, in some parts of the world) since things started to relax, and doesn't seem to be an explosion in cases.
To understand when we (we, the general population) will see that explosion in cases, please go back to my model on page 1 of the thread.
On my model, which was made to reflect how to bichito is spreading without any measures in place, due to exponential nature of the bichito, the effects were visible, across the world, after March 8th.
This was because 5 days earlier, on March 3rd, the number of infected people was 4 times smaller, hence, 4 times less visible.
However, many countries were in lock-down in early March, and most in mid-March, air travel (both international and national) dropped to less then 20%, tourism was basically zero after mid-March, so the infection rate plummeted.
That being said, the number of cases and deaths kept climbing, despite the lock-downs, because those were the results of previous infections, before lock-downs.
The effects of lock-downs were felt 3-4 weeks AFTER the lock-downs, when the infections and deaths started to plateau and decrease.
The same thing will happen with reopening.
The residual effects of lock-downs (low infection rate), paired with a gradual relaxing of measures AND with people being weary (many will wear masks for a while and avoid social contact) will be present for about 3-4 weeks.
We won't see any significant rise in cases aprox. 3-4 weeks after lock-downs are eased...actually, in many countries, were reopening is limited to parks, small stores, veg. markets, hair saloons and such, with mandatory masks indoors, the residual effects of lock-downs could last up to 6 weeks, especially if a significant number of people will abide by mandatory mask wearing and keep social distancing.
The second wave is going to be seen, by general population, between 4 to 6 weeks after reopening, quicker by those living in countries that will reopen factories, schools, bars, restaurants, etc., and later by those living in countries that will limit the reopening to smaller places.
The authorities will detect the second wave 2-3 weeks after reopening. But that doesn't miccionan that they will actually do anything about it.
I believe that the governments will choose, again, the wrong option, like they did since this started. Every worst measure that could have been possibly chose was chosen.
The governments did not took this bichito seriously, they did not started the lock-downs when it was supposed to (by early February, the entire world SHOULD have been on lock-downs, as I said since I started this thread), they didn't made masks mandatory (many countries don't even have masks mandatory even now), they did not grounded the ENTIRE air travel at the end of January, they did not stopped all travel with China in early January...basically, the governments reacted extremely late and their measures were poorly implemented.
The SAME thing will happen with reopening. They will choose the WRONG option : even if they will KNOW (before we will) that the second wave is upon us, a mere 2-3 weeks after reopening, they will choose to go forward, and not to lock-down when NEEDED.
Why will they do that?
Simply because it BUYS THEM TIME. The same as lock-downs bought them time with the health side of the problem, the gradual reopening will buy them time with the economic side of the problem.
But, not more then 6 weeks after reopening. In 6 weeks, the lock-downs will be back, in many countries. In others, they will revert to an earlier phase, pushing the second round of lock-downs couple more weeks.
They will rush with reopening...many already do, opening back big factories, malls, bars and schools. This is because they don't want to be "late" compared to others. It is all about money : "we will open when others will, so we won't lose the race".
The effect will be that most people will see this as "it's over, we're back to normal", instead of what ACTUALLY IS : an EXPERIMENT to see how the bichito hits when places were many people are congregating for long time.
And this will lead to a MASSIVE drop in human awareness : very soon, the number of those wearing masks will be close to zero, social distancing will be dropped, and the masses of lemmings will sing kumbaya, speeding toward the cliff.
Depending on the country, the size of reopening, the human behavior and residual effects of the lock-downs, the second wave will hit 3 to 4 weeks later (the governments will know earlier then that), and will be felt by the general population no later then 6 weeks.
Mark your calendars, because it will help you know when the preparation time is over, really over.
4 to 6 weeks after reopening, the lock-downs will be back. And when this happen, everyone will know it : we're fucked.
And everyone will assault the stores to make food reserves. Sadly, not even then, most will don't get it : the worst won't happen until fall/winter. And they won't prepare for such a long time.
You, on the other hand, will. Because you, like me, are understand what is happening, and were things are going.
Don't panic. October 2020 to April 2021 is going to be the worst time in recorded human history, but things will start to go bad the moment the second round of lock-downs is announced. People will go nuts.
Just prepare, as much as you can, to be SELF RELIABLE for as long as possible.
My worst-case scenario was postponed by the lock-downs and central banks throwing piles of cash in the economy. But that is over now. Everyone is rushing to open back up...because there are no money left to throw at the economy. Half the population is not working. Food prices are rising.
. La paciente 31
