Expatriado por la burbuja
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 22 Jun 2006
- Mensajes
- 217
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Os comento algunas de las ideas que han escrito los analistas de este banco de inversion para su roadshow europea.Me parece relevante porque muchos grandes inversores se toman las advertencias de estos analistas muy en serio y son estos inversores los que deciden sobre las primas de riesgo a exigir en las titulizaciones que se emiten desde Espana.
Basicamente hacen mencion a lo que se ha repetido hasta la saciedad sobre la economia espanola ( perdida de competitividad debido a la subida de los costes laborales unitarios, explosion del deficit por cuenta corriente etc. )
Lo chocante es que esta vez dedican algunas lineas a la burbuja inmobiliaria y lo mas interesante es la siguiente frase: The risk is that the smooth landing turns to bust, crunching construction demand and employment growth, as well as providing negative wealth effects for households. A potential trigger factor could be further ECB rate hikes, given that spanish mortgage debt is larely held at variable short-term rates. Still, the favourable fiscal position leaves the government well placed to ease policy, should growth slow markedly.
Otra frase importante : Because much of this external deficit is financed by other euro-area countries, it is unlikely to have negative repercussions for the euro. But the risk of financing flows suddenly drying up, and credit spreads rising, persists.
Basicamente hacen mencion a lo que se ha repetido hasta la saciedad sobre la economia espanola ( perdida de competitividad debido a la subida de los costes laborales unitarios, explosion del deficit por cuenta corriente etc. )
Lo chocante es que esta vez dedican algunas lineas a la burbuja inmobiliaria y lo mas interesante es la siguiente frase: The risk is that the smooth landing turns to bust, crunching construction demand and employment growth, as well as providing negative wealth effects for households. A potential trigger factor could be further ECB rate hikes, given that spanish mortgage debt is larely held at variable short-term rates. Still, the favourable fiscal position leaves the government well placed to ease policy, should growth slow markedly.
Otra frase importante : Because much of this external deficit is financed by other euro-area countries, it is unlikely to have negative repercussions for the euro. But the risk of financing flows suddenly drying up, and credit spreads rising, persists.
