Expatriado por la burbuja
Madmaxista
- Desde
- 22 Jun 2006
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Me ha llegado un analisis de ABN sobre titulizaciones que incluye algunas paginas sobre el mercado inmobiliario Spain.
Lo mas relevante :
Looking at historical average levels, spanish house prices seem to be over-valued by 30% to 80%; each of this estimations can be found in recent literature
Both analysis - demand driven and cash flow based - are coming to similar conclusions; however, adjusted by the dynamics of the development, overvaluation should be in the low single digit area.
On a short term basis (1y) risks seem to be limited BUT on a long term basis Spain is likely to face substantial difficulties !!
Lo mas relevante :
Looking at historical average levels, spanish house prices seem to be over-valued by 30% to 80%; each of this estimations can be found in recent literature
Both analysis - demand driven and cash flow based - are coming to similar conclusions; however, adjusted by the dynamics of the development, overvaluation should be in the low single digit area.
On a short term basis (1y) risks seem to be limited BUT on a long term basis Spain is likely to face substantial difficulties !!