nemo4
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Trichet: Si Baja el petroleo pienso subir tipos de todas formas
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La primea vez que leo pronósticos que apuntan por encima del 4% con cierta seguridad
http://www.rgemonitor.com/redir.php...4941&cid=155438
Focus now centers on the December meeting. Next month the Governing Council will probably decide
whether to raise rates further in 2007. The decision will depend crucially on developments in business confidence,
inflation and monetary variables. New ECB staff forecasts for 2007 and 2008 will also be available,
and we expect inflation forecasts to be very close to 2%. Probably 2.1% in 2007 and 2.0% in 2008 indirectly
approving further rate hikes given that growth forecasts are likely to show that growth will not fall below
trend. Furthermore, the ECB course will now be even more data dependant than during 2006.
We continue to expect a rate hike in December and two more hikes during 2007. Timing is uncertain.
Chances are rising that the ECB will not pause hiking rates during H1-2007, as we currently expect nor
lower the pace of tightening much. However, with the US economy slowing and the German VAT rise feeding
through the arguments for a “wait and see” attitude from the ECB are strong, given that the policy rate enters
neutral territory by December this year. The bottom-line is that we expect two hikes in 2007.
La primea vez que leo pronósticos que apuntan por encima del 4% con cierta seguridad
http://www.rgemonitor.com/redir.php...4941&cid=155438
Focus now centers on the December meeting. Next month the Governing Council will probably decide
whether to raise rates further in 2007. The decision will depend crucially on developments in business confidence,
inflation and monetary variables. New ECB staff forecasts for 2007 and 2008 will also be available,
and we expect inflation forecasts to be very close to 2%. Probably 2.1% in 2007 and 2.0% in 2008 indirectly
approving further rate hikes given that growth forecasts are likely to show that growth will not fall below
trend. Furthermore, the ECB course will now be even more data dependant than during 2006.
We continue to expect a rate hike in December and two more hikes during 2007. Timing is uncertain.
Chances are rising that the ECB will not pause hiking rates during H1-2007, as we currently expect nor
lower the pace of tightening much. However, with the US economy slowing and the German VAT rise feeding
through the arguments for a “wait and see” attitude from the ECB are strong, given that the policy rate enters
neutral territory by December this year. The bottom-line is that we expect two hikes in 2007.