What are the CME Housing Futures Predicting?
The Chicago Merc now trades futures on the real estate markets in ten major cities based on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Based on the futures, we show the expected percent change in single family home prices from June 2006 (the most recent actual data) to the four contract expiration months currently trading (11/06, 2/07, 5/07, and 8/07). The markets are expecting Las Vegas and San Diego to decline the most by next August, while New York and Denver are expected to decline the least. The composite future is looking for the entire housing market to decline by 6.44% by next August.
