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Antiguo 23-ago-2006, 15:50
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parece que en los USA la cosa se está poniendo muy fea:

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall in July to Two-Year Low (Update1)

(Adds economist comment in fourth paragraph)

By Shobhana Chandra and Joe Richter
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned homes in
the U.S. fell more than expected in July, resulting in the
biggest supply of unsold homes in more than a decade, as higher
mortgage rates discouraged would-be home buyers.
Purchases declined 4.1 percent last month to an annual rate
of 6.33 million, the lowest since January 2004, from 6.6 million
in June, the National Association of Realtors said today in
Washington. Sales fell 11.2 percent compared with a year earlier.
Rising mortgage rates, following a surge in prices during
the five-year housing boom, have made home purchases less
affordable than at any time in almost two decades, according to
the Realtors' group. The Federal Reserve, which this month paused
after two years of interest rate increases, is counting on an
orderly contraction in housing to help slow growth.
``It's pretty broad-based softness, across all regions,''
said Carl Riccadonna, U.S. economist with Deutsche Bank
Securities Inc. in New York. ``The Fed definitely has to be
concerned at this point.''
Resales were expected to drop to an annual rate of 6.55
million, the median estimate of 61 economists in a Bloomberg News
survey, from June's originally reported 6.62 million. Economists'
forecasts ranged from 6.35 million to 6.75 million.

Unsold Homes

The number of unsold homes on the market at the end of July
represented 7.3 months' worth at the current sales pace, the
highest since 1993.
The median price of an existing home rose 0.9 percent in
July from a year ago to $230,000, the Realtors group said.
The supply of homes for sale increased 3.2 percent to 3.86
million in July, taking the inventories up from the 6.8 months'
worth at the end of June.
Sales of previously owned homes rose in just two of the
prior 12 months through June. They averaged 7.05 million last
year. Existing home sales account for about 85 percent of the
housing market and are recorded when a contract is closed.
The focus now shifts to new home sales, a more timely
indicator because transactions are counted when a contract is
signed. A report from the Commerce Department tomorrow will
probably show new home sales declined to an annual rate of 1.1
million in July from 1.131 million in June, according to the
median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Builder Confidence Plunges

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo's
index of builder confidence plunged this month to the lowest
level in 15 years, a report showed last week.
Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. builder of luxury
homes, said yesterday net income in the three months ended July
31 fell 19 percent, the first drop in four years. The builder cut
its fourth-quarter profit forecast as rising interest rates hurt
demand for its houses, which sell for as much as $1.5 million.
The 16-member Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding
Index, which includes Toll Brothers, has dropped 36 percent since
the beginning of the year.
Resales of single-family homes fell 5 percent last month to
an annual rate of 5.51 million, the report said. Sales of condos
and co-ops rose 2.8 percent to an 818,000 rate.
Purchases fell in all regions of the country. They dropped
5.4 percent in the Northeast, 5.9 percent in the Midwest, 1.2
percent in the South and 6.4 percent in the West.
``We're more likely nationally to see a soft landing rather
than a bubble bursting,'' said Nicolas Retsinas, director of
Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies in
Cambridge, Massachusetts. ``People are finding it more difficult,
with higher mortgage rates, to buy a home. Rents are starting to
go up again.''

Forecast to Decline

David Lereah, the Realtors chief economist, said the
association will lower its forecast for existing-home sales this
year. Previously, the group expected resales to decline 6.5
percent to 6.61 million in 2006, from last year's record 7.08
Some economists predict prices will fall as more homes sit
unsold, especially on the new homes market, where builders and
investors may cut prices to get rid of properties.
``There's still some room for home prices to come down a
bit,'' said Bob Moulton, president of Manhasset, New York-based
Americana Mortgage Group. ``Buyers have much more of a choice
now. All that inventory out there is going to force prices
The Fed raised the benchmark interest rate 17 straight times
since 2004 to control inflation, and left the rate unchanged at
5.25 percent on Aug. 8. While housing is slowing gradually so
far, a sudden slump may hurt consumer spending, economists said.

`Fragile' Market

``It's very important that the Fed understand the fragile
state of the housing market,'' Lereah said. ``It's very important
that the Fed maintain the status quo, keep rates where they
A recent study by the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank says the
surge in the U.S. housing market since 2001 is linked to gains in
wealth and the introduction of innovative mortgages and has
little to do with speculative fever that characterizes bubbles.
``We currently are seeing a good deal of softening in
housing markets, and home prices are increasing at a slower
rate,'' Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow
said yesterday in prepared remarks to the McLean County Chamber
of Commerce in central Illinois. ``Even if prices did decline
nationally, history suggests that the impact on consumer spending
would be modest and gradual.''

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Antiguo 23-ago-2006, 15:58
Deadzoner Deadzoner está desconectado
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Yo, a piñon fijo:
¿Si el valor tasado en USA baja un 20% o mas (tienen el mayor stock de vivienda en los últimos 10 años y siguen construyendo), seguirán dando los bancos españoles hipotecas a 40 años sobre el 80%?
¿Que pasaría si se suma sobreoferta, tipos altos y restricción en el número de años?

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Antiguo 23-ago-2006, 16:17
Luchtbel Luchtbel está desconectado
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Hola a todos,

Leo muchas veces que el gobierno español no va a permitir que bajen el precio de los pisos yo me pregunto como si el gobierno del pais mas poderoso del mundo USA no puede hacerlo.

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Antiguo 23-ago-2006, 16:59
Marai Marai está desconectado
Excelentísimo, ilustrísimo y grandísimo miembro de élite de los gurús burbujistas
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EL gráfico siguiente indica la variación interanual de un índice de compra de vivienda de EEUU comparando mes a mes 2006 con 2005. Hay que tener en cuenta que el verano de 2005 tuvo un nivel de ventas excepcional. El caso es que en Agosto de 2006 se venden un 20% ménos de viviendas que en 2005. En lo que va de año las ventas han caído un 13% respecto al año anterior.

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Antiguo 23-ago-2006, 17:39
Deadzoner Deadzoner está desconectado
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Y además, lo ven muy crudo: se plantean si habrá sido rentable invertir en vivienda.
Thomas Stevens, a Virginia Realtor and president of the national group, tried to put the best face on what the softer prices mean for sellers, saying most are not going to lose money on their home sales because they've been in them long enough to benefit from the earlier gains.

"Considering that typical sellers have been in their home for six years, the average appreciation during that time is close to 60 percent," he said in the group's statement.

¿Está diciendo esta mujer que todo aquel que haya conseguido una revalorización menor del 60% va a perder pasta? ¿Es un colchon?
Pues si que está mal la cosa.

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Antiguo 23-ago-2006, 17:40
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Bien, esto marcha.

Incremento anual del precio medio de la vivienda en un año (julio 2005-julio 2006) inferior a un 1%.

Al que inició el hilo si viviera en USA tendría que cambiar de NICK lo mismo que si viviera en Hongkong, Australia...... y probablemente en Inglaterra con la siguiente subida de tipos.

Ayer los resultados de un constructor importante americano (Toll Bhothers, creo) peores de lo esperado (descenso de 19% de los beneficios) y otro hace una semana entró en quiebra.

Un Saludo.

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Antiguo 23-ago-2006, 20:01
Aqui_No_Hay_Quien_Viva Aqui_No_Hay_Quien_Viva está desconectado
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Este es el indicador que cité a primera hora de la mañana que se conocería en la referencia a las declaraciones de Moscow sobre próximas subidas del i. EUREKA!!! se confirman mis presagios...

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Antiguo 23-ago-2006, 20:30
Aqui_No_Hay_Quien_Viva Aqui_No_Hay_Quien_Viva está desconectado
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Por otra parte, estas son las proyecciones realizadas por unos compañeros de trabajo y yo (trabajamos todas en ramas financieras)
Precio del barril: 60-70 -> I: 4% en el medio-largo plazo (en término económicos largo plazo es más de 1 año).
Precio del barril: 70 - 80 -> I: +- 4,5 (variación de 0,25) en el medio-largo plazo . Recesión en España
Precio del barril: 80 - 90 -> I : +- 5 (variación de 0,25) en el medio-largo plazo . Recesión en la UE.
Precio del barril > 90 : Recesión Mundial.
Recordemos que la demanda de barril es muy inelástica (quieras o no tienes que desplazarte de alguna forma al trabajo, en bus, coche o lo que quieras y y el transporte de mercancías es inalterable)

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