El escenario más probable según BNP

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Antiguo 20-ago-2006, 19:24
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What is the most likely scenario for the property market?

Empirically, house prices are notable for being very highly self-correlated (expectations feed reality and vice versa), making it hard to identify turning points.

Although few would dispute that property is overvalued, it remains to be seen when the property market will adjust and whether it will take the form of a bubble suddenly bursting or a soft landing. The price slowdown seems to be happening already, with the year on-year rate steadily declining since the end of 2003. Peaking at that time at 18.7%, it was 12.8% in Q4 2005. Like, some Spanish banking establishments, we foresee a marked slowdown this year.

Monetary erosion and nominal prices

If prices were to merely stabilise they would return to their fundamental values more quickly than in other countries in which house prices are overvalued to a similar extent (around nine years with average inflation of
3%, versus 13 years in a country with average annual inflation of 2%).

Although house prices stabilised between 1991 and 1997, values dropped 19.8% in real terms. Meanwhile, French house prices fell 5% nominally
and 11% in real terms. Between comparable points of the 1989-1995 property cycle, UK house prices lost 14.5% in nominal terms and 35.6% in real terms.

The fact remains that cyclical downturns for residential property last less than nine years with an average of five to seven years, suggesting a slight
adjustment to nominal prices during this time.

Our scenario is that of a soft landing with a limited drop in nominal prices. However, further price growth – still likely in 2006 if the ECB raises its key interest rate very moderately – heightens the risk of a subsequent

What future for the Spanish housing market?

http://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/applis/WWW/recheco.nsf/ConjonctureByDateEN/ACDEBDB7BE42AD85C1257132004763 51/$File/C0603_A1.pdf?OpenElement#searc h=%22bubble%20house%20spain%20 madrid%20pdf%22

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Antiguo 20-ago-2006, 19:28
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Esto no ha hecho más que empezar, agarraros fuerte.

un saludete

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Antiguo 20-ago-2006, 19:35
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Que Bueno!!!!!
Parece que nos leen...

With so many arguments to suggest house prices are
near their cyclical peak, the economic consequences of
a downturn merit consideration.

Theoretical overvaluation of around 30%
Threats to household solvency
The positive influence of demography could fade in the long term

The surprising strength of the Spanish residential
property market from the second half of the 1990s has
understandably raised fears about the possibility of a
bubble. Our analysis suggests house prices were
overvalued by around 30% in 2005, which is close to the
Bank of Spain’s estimate for 2004. Although the
necessary reduction in real house prices seems likely to
materialise through a gradual normalisation rather than a
doomsday scenario, we still think the market will come to
its senses quickly. However, the global nature of the
current property cycle would tend to limit the relative
influence of specific national factors, meaning we cannot
rule out the possibility of a more drastic adjustment,
particularly if foreign benchmark property markets take a
turn for the worse (United Kingdom, United States).

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